F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

MichelR

HELLFIRE The WedgeTail.

Thane_Bitter

HELLFIRE The Golden Arches - I mean Golden Dome.

A system yet to be fully designed using technology that does not yet exist, that always works flawlessly on paper against the simple scenarios that its been tested against.

If it’s like the system the US put up to “Contain” Iran and protect US interests in that sandy little area, one unguided missile or explosive is enough to make it entirely useless and render all the defensive systems connected to it as being inoperable. For reasons which are entirely self serving you do not hear much about this failure in the US but they put all their eggs in one rather targetable basket and can’t do much to fix the issue until an entirely new system is built.

MichelR

Thane_Bitter

MichelR MichelR

edit: forum guidelines

It was the AN/FPS-132 that was destroyed, a useful bit of kit but it alone lacks the range needed for the Dome dream project, the cost to build one of these arrays costs about the same as ~ 30 F-35 jets and about as long to build either.

Other than a big sharpie filled form board display showing an ethereal yellowish dome covering over much of North America the details and tech has been limited. I think we call all picture older radar systems like the russian woodpecker system (an impressive giant metal fence like thing) but as seen on that radar and even Starlink’s receiver transmitter devices, newer tech has allowed for size reduction (though high costs).

As for the F35s, that deal could very well change. The art of moving goalposts/bullshiting has a cost.

MichelR

Thane_Bitter I ran into a French military aviation podcast this morning about the latest GAO report on the F-35. Operating costs are now up to $53K an hour, and availability has dropped significantly since 2021, as low as just over 24% in some cases. Was it Belgium who asked L-M about the lower-than-expected availability of their fleet and L-M responded by “just buy more of them”?

I’m so tired of this and everything that I can’t pay too much attention anymore, trying to safeguard the little sanity I have left.

Thane_Bitter

MichelR Doesn’t work right, so you buy more of the same thing; what a solution.

HELLFIRE

https://www.twz.com/air/saabs-gripen-f-two-seater-takes-to-the-air-for-the-first-time – Saab’s Gripen F Two-Seater Takes To The Air For The First Time

… The Gripen F is the two-seat derivative of the Gripen E, but it is not simply a conventional trainer version of the single-seat fighter. … The configuration is therefore intended to support conversion training and mission preparation while also offering potential advantages during complex combat missions through the division of cockpit workload. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/gripen-f-first-flight-drone-warfare-electronic-attack/ – Two-Seat Gripen F Takes Flight, Redefining Drone Warfare and Global Airpower

… Both positions receive the AEL Sistemas Wide Area Display, creating separate interfaces through which crews manage shared information without forcing one operator to navigate every sensor, weapon and network simultaneously. … The redesigned forward fuselage stretches length from 15.2 to 15.9 metres, accommodating the second cockpit, controls, display, ejection seat and structural provisions while retaining the 8.6-metre wingspan. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/f-35-cost-crisis-us536-billion-global-airpower/ – F-35 Cost Crisis: US$536 Billion Bill Reshapes Global Airpower

The United States’ F-35 acquisition programme has climbed by US$51 billion to US$536.2 billion, exposing how delayed modernisation, advanced sensors, propulsion demands and readiness shortfalls are reshaping the world’s largest fifth-generation fighter enterprise. The revised estimate covers development, testing and procurement of 2,456 production aircraft, their F135 engines, initial spares, production support and dedicated infrastructure for the United States Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. …

The article breaks down the $51billion as $19billion for research, development, testing and evaluation, while $32billion is “higher procurement costs” of the various pieces of the F-35.

The article includes this interesting tidbit : “Those quantities explain why dividing US$536.2 billion by 2,470 aircraft produces a misleading per-aircraft figure…”

Sure peoples’ wallets are already screaming at the figures… 😱 😱 😱

Regards

HELLFIRE

HELLFIRE which other ones does the US expect us to buy? 🙄

…think my question is answered in more detail with this : https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/trump-canada-globaleye-e7-wedgetail-norad-deal/ – Washington’s attempt to link tariff relief with Boeing’s E-7 Wedgetail has turned Canada’s GlobalEye procurement into a strategic battle over NORAD, Golden Dome and defence sovereignty.

… During intensive negotiations in mid-August 2026, American officials pressed Canada to reconsider Saab’s GlobalEye and purchase Boeing’s E-7 Wedgetail within a wider package encompassing tariffs, F-35 fighters, and Golden Dome participation. … Washington framed American radar aircraft as important for integration with NORAD, F-35s, ground sensors, interceptors, and [the] proposed Golden Dome missile-defence architecture across the wider North American battlespace; Ottawa, however, sees GlobalEye’s Canadian airframe, promised technology transfer, export production, and reduced dependence on American-controlled systems as valuable strategic insurance following a significant deterioration in increasingly strained bilateral relations. …

Very indepth read of the PROs and CONs over this, to which I’ll leave it at that and go no further. Hope people find it informative.

Regards

bjlockie

HELLFIRE The article breaks down the $51billion

I doubt very much it is that low.
Probably more towards the high end. :-)

ZZZZZZZ

Stephen Fuhr was mocked for opposing the purchase of F-35s. Now he’s in charge of Canada’s defence procurement | CBC News https://share.google/NdL95bQ9etyFtCnWr
He’s also the only Liberal to get elected in this pro PC territory ,thankfully.👍🇨🇦
So hopefully he goes with the Gripen.

KingB71

If SAAB were smart they would have had a demonstration team of Gripens at the air show in Toronto on the weekend

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://www.twz.com/air/andurils-yfq-44a-fury-cca-has-flown-alongside-f-35s – Anduril’s YFQ-44A Fury CCA Has Flown Alongside F-35s

… Exactly how an F-35 would control Fury remains part of that ongoing development effort : the executives pointed to work involving integration of the appropriate human-machine interfaces, primarily including tablet-based control from the crewed fighter, at least at first. The distinction between flying alongside an F-35 and being controlled by an F-35 is important. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://www.twz.com/air/yfq-44a-fury-has-been-fit-checked-with-air-to-ground-munitions – YFQ-44A Fury Has Been Fit Checked With Air-To-Ground Munitions

New imagery shared with TWZ by Anduril shows its YFQ-44A Fury Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) configured with air-to-ground weapons, underscoring the fact that the CCA could take on an air-to-ground role in the future in addition to its current air-to-air focus. … It should be noted that giving the YFQ-44— or YFQ-42A — the ability to deliver a JDAM or SDB against a predetermined fixed target is not particularly complex : this type of austere air-to-ground capability should be relatively straightforward to add, providing a useful secondary strike function without requiring the aircraft to take on the far more demanding requirements associated with dynamic targeting or more sophisticated air-to-ground missions. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

FWIW :

https://www.twz.com/air/f-35-sale-to-saudi-arabia-approved-by-state-department – F-35 Sale To Saudi Arabia Approved By State Department

The U.S. State Department today approved the possible sale of 48 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. … In addition to the jets, which will be conventional takeoff and landing variants, Saudi Arabia has requested 49 Pratt & Whitney F135-PW-100 engines, support and other items. …

https://defence-blog.com/u-s-approves-saudi-f-35-sale-after-year-of-signals/ – U.S. approves Saudi F-35 sale after year of signals

The U.S. State Department approved a possible $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia on Sept. 17, 2026.

The notification follows a Houthi claim a day earlier that it shot down a Royal Saudi Air Force F-15 over Marib governorate.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/saudi-arabia-48-f35-deal-israel-china/ – 48 F-35s for Saudi Arabia: $24.3 Billion Deal Tests Israel and China

… Consequently, the proposed Saudi F-35 deal is simultaneously an airpower modernization programme, an American industrial commitment, a counter-China alignment instrument, an Israeli security test, and a long-term logistics undertaking whose conditions may reshape Middle Eastern defence partnerships. … The absence of an identified offset agreement leaves unresolved how far Saudi industry might participate in sustainment or manufacturing, even as the Strategic Defense Agreement aims to ease American corporate access and Riyadh continues pursuing domestic defence-industrial development under national modernization priorities. …

Regards

Dks01

There are security concerns.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3x2zrn01pxko

HELLFIRE

Dks01 There are security concerns.

Add another one to the list :

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/18/congress-f-35-china-investigation-01083647 – Hill investigates after F-35 parts diverted to Hong Kong

… The Pentagon confirmed the disappearance of some components. The parts, which an intermediary was transporting on behalf of F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin, instead wound up in Hong Kong; it’s not clear why the equipment was rerouted or who has possession of it now. …

Article links to a 2023 GAO report finding more than 1 million F-35 spare parts have gone missing in the last 5 years : https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106098

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/f-35-stealth-parts-hong-kong-pentagon-security-probe/ – F-35 Stealth Parts Diverted to Hong Kong, Triggering Pentagon Security Probe

… Congressional national-security committee staff began receiving briefings in June 2026, indicating that Washington regarded the incident as a supply-chain security problem with possible counterintelligence implications rather than merely a misplaced cargo case requiring routine administrative resolution. The shipment’s current custody remains publicly unknown, as does whether its rerouting resulted from human error, an unauthorised intervention, or a deliberate operation, leaving the most consequential explanations unproven while recovery efforts and official inquiries continue. …

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/federal-probe-into-diversion-of-f-35-parts-to-hong-kong – Federal probe into diversion of F-35 parts to Hong Kong

… The mode of shipment was not immediately identified. Fighter parts are typically shipped as controlled aerospace cargo, often by military or contracted commercial airlift for urgent items, and by truck, sea freight or a combination of modes for less time-sensitive components; F-35 supply movements, for example, have used both military airlift and commercial carriers under U.S. Transportation Command arrangements, according to the Defense Logistics Agency. …

This an “Oooopsie Doozy” or an “Oh S**T!” moment? TOTALLY asking for a friend…

/extreme sarcasm and malice intended

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE Reminds me of the time when the original dies for the first dollar coin were lost somewhere between Ottawa and Winnipeg when the mint cheaped out on courier services. In an attempt to save $43.50, they used a local courier instead of a high security courier like Brinks. The dies were lost in transit and we are left with the current Loonie.

https://ottawarewind.com/2019/12/30/canadas-lost-loonie/

MaynardKrebs

The former head of US military acquisitions stated that the US should have never undertaken the manufacture of the F-35.

https://abcnews.com/Blotter/35-fighter-plan-acquisition-malpractice-pentagon-official/story?id=15530008

This isssue of the E-7 vs. GlobalEye is moot. About the only thing that the E-7 has that is not present on the GlobalEye is air-air refueling, and that can be added, and any other missing bits are either black boxes or LPI antennas (which really don’t apply to flying ‘billboards’ like the E-7 or GlobalEye). Surveillance aircraft like these are blasting radar through the sky, making their positions well known, and their thermal plumes are not disguised. At least the GlobalEye can run faster than the E-7.
The F-35 fighter that we have purchased a small quantity of, has not yet reached what is called Block 4 status. The small number of aircraft that we will be receiving over the next few years are going to be Block 3 models. yet our contract with Lockheed Martin is for Block 4 models.
The Block 4 upgrade will not be available before 2031 at the earliest, according to the US GAO – Government Accountability Office reports of earlier this year.

So why are we paying for jets that will sit around without the capabilities that we ordered for upwards of five years, while the US has our money? And when the Block 4 upgrade is finally available, our F-35 jets will be towards the bottom end of the queue to be upgraded, resulting in what will probably turn out to be at least another year or more before the jets are fully upgraded.

Best way out of the F-35 fiasco is to take our jets and sell them to the Chinese. After all, they already have millions of dollars worth of spare parts….and the blueprints & source code. They’d get better use out of them than we would.

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