F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

InternetJeff

MaynardKrebs Best way out of the F-35 fiasco is to take our jets and sell them to the Chinese.

SMH.

Dks01

MaynardKrebs So why are we paying for jets that will sit around without the capabilities that we ordered for upwards of five years, while the US has our money?

Reminds me of the pile of Ford F-150’s that sat around during COVID for lack of parts and electronics.

MaynardKrebs

GAO report about F-35 spare parts availability.

Over 1MM spare parts have been ‘lost’ between 2018 - 2023. Only 2% of the losses have been investigated.
Given the ‘camel-like’ nature of the parts accountability (camel = horse designed by a committee), it’s not surprising.

What percentage of the 1MM ‘missing’ parts are just misfiled vs. boosted out the back door is unclear. But not having accurate knowledge of where spares actually are can ground a whole squadron of planes when they are needed. Imagine if some of those parts are long lead time items. Planes would have to be cannibalized to keep other in the air. May as well buy Sopwith Camels - parts can be made in any woodshed.

www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-106098
Full report is available at the bottom of this web page.

MichelR

MaynardKrebs I read this and think of all the western air forces buying that plane, and it makes me nervous.

HELLFIRE

Echos the other sources I’ve shared already with this new tidbit regarding canopy maintenance : https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-did-sensitive-f-35-parts-end-up-in-hong-kong-ps-092126 – How Did Sensitive F-35 Parts End Up in Hong Kong?

… In addition, while there is a Final Assembly and Check-Out (FACO) facility in Nagoya, Japan—operated by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries—that serves as the North Asia-Pacific regional hub for heavy airframe Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul, and Upgrade (MRO&U), its depot-level capabilities do not extend to canopy dome refurbishment or repair. … Unserviceable and/or damaged canopy components need to be shipped back to the United States. …

On one hand, the F-35 sounds great for the capabilities it brings to the table.

On the other, could things like this lead to this old cautionary tale? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_want_of_a_nail Or to quote the late Montgomery Scott “The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain.”

Regards

MichelR

The first Canadian F-35 (CF-35A) made its maiden flight in Forth Worth, TX, yesterday.

https://theaviationist.com/2026/09/23/canadas-first-f-35-conducts-maiden-flight/

HELLFIRE

https://www.twz.com/air/f-35-canopy-and-weapons-bay-door-loss-to-china-separating-fact-from-fiction – F-35 Canopy And Weapons-Bay Door Loss To China: Separating Fact From Fiction

… The parts in question were being shipped by UPS from Australia to the United States in late May, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg. … F-35 components moving through an established international logistics system apparently stopped in South Korea, and were then routed to Hong Kong; Chinese authorities subsequently took possession of the parts and have not returned them, according to the sources cited by Bloomberg …

For something alittle more lighthearted : https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/italy-racing-ferrari-against-f-35-ps-092426 – Italy Is Racing a Ferrari Against an F-35—Because of Course It Is

… To date, the F-35 hasn’t raced a Top Fuel dragster, but next month it could go all out with a Ferrari SF90, a competition that only our Italian allies could dream up. The race will occur on a Marina Militare (Italian Navy) runway at the Grottaglie base in Southern Italy. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://defence-blog.com/northrop-gets-124-million-for-delayed-f-35-radar-parts/ – Northrop gets $124 million for delayed F-35 radar parts

The U.S. Navy awarded Northrop Grumman up to $123.8 million for long-lead parts for 67 APG-85 radars for U.S. F-35s.

Delays to the APG-85 have forced U.S. services to accept new F-35s with ballast in place of radars.

More interesting points from the article :

Lockheed proposed a new design that can take either radar, but won’t be ready till Lot 20 / 2028.
Export customers aren’t affected because the APG-85 isn’t being offered abroad.

Didn’t have any luck finding the claimed article about the new design, but I did find this, dated Sep 4 :

https://breakingdefense.com/2026/09/f-35-costs-jump-in-latest-production-lots/ – Compared to recent contracts, the average flyaway cost of an F-35A and F-35B rose by over 11 percent, while the price of an F-35C climbed over 8 percent, according to figures supplied by the F-35 Joint Program Office.

According to the article :

F-35A rose from $82.5 million to $92 million (+11.5%)

F-35B rose from $109 million to $121.4 million (+11.4%)

F-35C rose from $102.1 million to $110.8 million (+8.5%)

FWIW, take what you will from this, and hope it keeps people informed.

Regards

HELLFIRE

Further information about Turkey and the whole F-35 / S-400 gongshow : https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85557 – Lavrov Says Turkey Must Guarantee S-400 Systems Won’t Reach Ukraine

In brief: Turkey has been looking to offload the S-400 systems it bought from Russia – a Washington imposed prerequisite to allow Ankara to purchase its F-35 fighters. Lavrov said Moscow was willing to consider the transfer of the systems if it was guaranteed they wouldn’t find their way to Ukraine.

US didn’t want Turkey to get the S-400 because it might “expose” the F-35. Russia doesn’t want Turkey’s disposition of the S-400 to lead to Ukraine getting them. Talk about “D ** ned If You Do, D ** ned If You Don’t …” 🙄

Article links to this from July 26 of this year – https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/turkeys-s-400-saga-shows-hard-realities-defence-procurement – listing four possible options for Turkish disposal of the S-400, and the PROS / CONS of each.

Take what you will from this and hope people find it informative.

Regards

HELLFIRE

Behind a paywall – https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2026/09/29/why-israel-would-oppose-turkey-selling-its-russian-s-400s-to-the-uae/ – Why Israel Would Oppose Turkey Selling Its Russian S-400s To The UAE – but from the generated summary :

… This opposition stems from Israel’s desire to prevent Turkey from resolving its S-400 impasse with the United States, which would enable Ankara to acquire advanced F-35 fighter jets. … Reports suggest Israeli lobbying is currently delaying the potential UAE deal, as Israel prefers Turkey remains unable to obtain the fifth-generation US fighters, thus maintaining the current strategic balance. …

Another source that appears to echo the Forbes article, however I do not know the quality of source and standard NaCl cautions apply : https://middleeasttransparent.com/israels-s-400-gambit-closes-turkiyes-f-35-escape-route/ – Israel’s S-400 Gambit Closes Türkiye’s F-35 Escape Route

… The claim that Israel blocked the UAE transaction emerged most clearly in a Sept. 23 column by Mehmet Acet in Haber7. Citing an unnamed source, Acet reported that Israel had urged the Emirati leadership not to purchase the Turkish S-400s because the transfer would clear the way for the removal of CAATSA sanctions and Türkiye’s return to the F-35 programme; that account cannot yet be independently treated as an established fact. …

From the above quoted section onwards is a VERY deep dive into Israeli-Turkey geopolitical relations that is well worth reading, and much more than a 2second soundbyte covers.

Hope people find it informative, and I leave people to take what they will from it.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/poland-now-has-another-f-35-fighter-jet-this-time-from-italy-ps-100226 – Poland Now Has Another F-35 Fighter Jet—This Time from Italy

Sixteen of Poland’s 32 planned F-35 “Husarz” aircraft will be built in Milan, Italy, rather than Texas; the first of that group arrived this week. … Although the initial eight Husarz jet fighters now stationed at the 32nd Tactical Air Base were produced at Lockheed Martin’s facility in Fort Worth, Texas, the ninth aircraft had to make a comparatively short flight from the Italian F-35 Final Assembly and Check-Out (FACO) in Cameri, outside of Milan. …

Regards

Thane_Bitter

MaynardKrebs Johnny Cash, one piece at a time. At least aircraft aren’t built as year models so the end product should look ok, the problem is finding a lunchbox that is big enough.

HELLFIRE

https://defence-blog.com/u-s-navy-seeks-help-redesigning-f-35-mission-planning/ – U.S. Navy seeks help redesigning F-35 mission planning

… The F-35’s Mission Planning Environment is the set of software tools squadron pilots and planners use on the ground to build a mission: routes, threats, targets, weapons and communications settings. The finished plan is then loaded into the jet. It sits within the F-35’s offboard mission support systems, the ground computers and software that support the aircraft outside the cockpit, alongside the ODIN logistics network that replaced the troubled ALIS system. …

FWIW.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://defence-blog.com/bae-wins-f-35-electronic-warfare-order-for-lots-20-22/ – BAE wins F-35 electronic warfare order for Lots 20-22

… The contract covers AN/ASQ-239 systems for F-35 Lots 20 through 22, along with systems to retrofit and modernize older aircraft already in service. … According to BAE Systems, much of that capability is software-based, so operators can update the system quickly to respond to new threats without waiting for hardware changes. …

FWIW.

Regards

HELLFIRE

HELLFIRE This an “Oooopsie Doozy” or an “Oh S**T!” moment? TOTALLY asking for a friend…

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/we-now-know-how-china-got-sensitive-f-35-parts-ps-100926 – Existing US export controls forbid the delivery of sensitive military equipment to non-approved countries, but a UPS employee appears to have ignored an email containing this information.

… An email was sent from freight forwarder DSV specifying that the components must not transit through certain countries, per the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR)—a rule that is in place to prevent sensitive US weapons technology from falling into the hands of US adversaries. … However, the parts were late in departing from Australia, and in an effort to speed up its delivery, the shipment was then routed via Hong Kong, on the ITAR blacklist … prior to this week’s disclosure, there had already been no shortage of finger-pointing, as components related to one of the US military’s most advanced combat aircraft were essentially delivered to the Chinese government. …

Article sources this Bloomberg article for the above : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/ups-worker-missed-security-email-letting-china-get-f-35-parts (paywall)
https://archive.ph/UEv3P (nonpaywall)

Of interest is this :

… UPS doesn’t provide a complete breakdown of revenue by sector but in recent years the company has highlighted a strategic push to garner more business in sectors that could also include aerospace and defense. …

Regards

KingB71

Looks like work is being done on replacing the engine supplier in future versions of the Gripen

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/saab-and-gkn-deepen-work-on-the-gripen-engine/

HELLFIRE

More information about the Turkish F-35s, FWIW : https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/turkiye-six-f35a-us-storage-s400-dispute/ – Six undelivered F-35A Lightning II fighters expose the legal and technology-security barriers separating Türkiye’s NATO partnership from operational stealth airpower.

… The six aircraft, designated AT-01 through AT-06, are identified as Low-Rate Initial Production Lot 10 and Lot 11 examples, placing their original configuration before the Technology Refresh 3 hardware standard associated with later production beginning at Lot 15 onward. … Ayesaş is identified in the supplied material as the sole supplier of the panoramic cockpit display and missile remote interface unit … other Turkish firms contributed engine hardware, landing-gear components and wiring systems, spreading participation across multiple aircraft subsystems and making industrial exclusion a broader commercial and technical disruption than the loss of assembly work associated with a handful of completed fighters. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://www.twz.com/air/f-35c-makes-first-arrested-landing-aboard-a-ford-class-carrier –

… The first arrested landing aboard John F. Kennedy demonstrates that the ship has reached an important F-35C compatibility milestone. It does not, however, establish that all testing, certification, or operational qualification requirements have been completed … in a 2019 report, TWZ highlighted concerns that Ford class carriers would not be ready to operate the F-35C for years. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/mystery-f35-millions-customise-us-stealth-fighters – Mystery F-35 Customer Investing Millions to Customise U.S. Stealth Fighters: Israel and Singapore Most Likely Clients

… Although the Pentagon has not publicly identified the customer or disclosed the specific modifications being developed, there has been considerable speculation as to which client may have placed the orders. … The United States has notably restricted the extent to which all clients can customise the F-35, with no clients being able to alter its base code, although Israel has been granted permission to ‘plug in’ its own software on top of this. …

https://defence-blog.com/mystery-foreign-buyer-pays-for-its-own-custom-f-35/ – Mystery foreign buyer pays for its own custom F-35

An unnamed foreign customer is paying Lockheed Martin $18.8 million for development and integration work on an F-35 variant tailored to its requirements.

The award continues a contract that funded similar work in 2022 and 2025, with the new effort running through December 2030.

Article sources the contract itself here : https://www.war.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/4626623/contracts-for-oct-15-2026/

https://defensewarroom.com/2026/10/16/f-35-variant-integration-lockheed-fms-customer/ – Tailored F-35 Variant for Unnamed Foreign Buyer Moves Into Integration Through 2030

To me, the interesting part is this section :

… Any national configuration integrated over the next four years must land on the TR-3 hardware baseline and the Block 4 software path, both behind schedule. The Director, Operational Test and Evaluation reported that no combat-capable TR-3 aircraft had been delivered to US services through fiscal 2025, and the Government Accountability Office now projects Block 4 completion no earlier than 2031, five years later than first planned. …

Regards

bjlockie

Buy the Gripens already.

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