F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

MaynardKrebs

Dks01

The Arrow RL 204, with a PW J75 test engines, (17,000 lbs. thrust, each) hit Mach 1.90 in level flight. The Iroquois 2 engine was rated at least 20% more powerful (22,000 lbs. dry thrust, 30,000 lbs. afterburner, each), and would have pushed the Arrow beyond Mach 2, and possibly closer to Mach 2.5 - the airframe was rated to at least Mach 2.5. Arrow RL-206 and the Iroquois 2 engine would have been ready for test flights just a few months post-cancellation.

Anecdote: An Iroquois 2 test engine, mounted on the fuselage of a B-47 bomber, actually warped the aircraft’s structure due to it’s power. The B-47 was scrapped as ‘unrepairable’ after the Iroquois flight tests.

Dks01

MaynardKrebs Yes, all of which is well known. But J58 in the A-12/YF-12A/SR-71 could cruise at Mach2+. If the Arrow was as good as it was imagined, the issue of airframe heating was never considered. More likely it would have hit Mach 2 and melted.

taraf

Efficiency is a much bigger factor in modern jets than raw power - it’s one of the reasons the Foxbat was ultimately a failure (but scared the Americans enough that they built the F-15). It had a ton of raw power, but couldn’t use it efficiently.

This to say: switching out the engine in the Gripen for something with more raw power, like the Korean variant of the GE-414, may not actually give any advantage at all to the flight characteristics of the plane, and even if it does it may not be enough to justify an increased cost. One of the main advantages of the Gripen is how easy it is to maintain and deploy from remote airfields. Sweden launches them on highways, and if you drive through the right parts of that country you can see 2- or 4-plane squadrons literally parked on the side of the highway.

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://defence-blog.com/contractor-wins-deal-to-build-classified-f-35-facility-in-arkansas/ – Contractor wins deal to build classified F-35 facility in Arkansas

BL Harbert International was awarded a $37,607,122 contract to build an F-35 Special Access Program Facility at Ebbing Air National Guard Base in Fort Smith, Arkansas.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Fort Worth, Texas, is managing the contract, with completion estimated by January 31, 2029.

According to the article, “the facility will function as a squadron operations mission planning center.”

Regards

MaynardKrebs

HELLFIRE

Meteor and Spear 3 are UK-specific weapon systems. All ties back to Block 4 and the delays therein…<

Meteor is fully integrated on the Gripen & Eurofighter

MaynardKrebs

Dks01

the issue of airframe heating was never considered. More likely it would have hit Mach 2 and melted.<

If you read actual comments for the Avro aerodynamicsists and structures engineers, Mach 2+ wasn’t going to be an issue for the Mk 1 Arrows. Changes would have to have been made to push past Mach 2.5

MaynardKrebs

HELLFIRE According to the article, “the facility will function as a squadron operations mission planning center.”

And barbeque??

Dks01

MaynardKrebs I suspect they didn’t know what they didn’t know. Reading the development story of the A-12, YF-12A and SR-71 suggests that a lot wasn’t known about Mach2 sustained flight.

HELLFIRE

MaynardKrebs Meteor is fully integrated on the Gripen & Eurofighter

Same with the AGM-88E… but it won’t work with the F-35 till Block 4.

Kinda like finding out that “Win32 app” in “Windows Compatibility Mode” isn’t so compatible.

shrugs

Regards

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://en.defence-ua.com/news/sweden_cuts_gripen_turnaround_from_15_to_10_minutes_including_hot_rearming_team_of_one_officer_and_five_conscripts_does_full_refuel_rearm_and_relaunch-19462.html – Sweden Cuts Gripen Turnaround From 15 to 10 Minutes Including Hot Rearming, Team of One Officer and Five Conscripts Does Full Refuel, Rearm and Relaunch

… Currently measures are being implemented to reduce standard from 15 to 10 minutes, Swedish Air Force Commander Jonas Wikman reported, cited by AIN. … Such speed is planned to be achieved through using not only hot refueling, already practiced now, when aircraft is refueled without engine shutdown, but also hot rearming; new standard is planned to be implemented in very near future. …

Regards

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://defence-blog.com/first-german-f-35a-gets-stealth-coating-before-delivery/ – First German F-35A gets stealth coating before delivery

Germany’s first F-35A, MG-01, entered Aircraft Final Finishes at Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth facility for painting and stealth coating.

The aircraft is the first of 35 F-35As Germany ordered and is expected to reach Büchel Air Base by late 2027.

Regards

HELLFIRE

Regarding Turkey, their S-400s and F-35s, FWIW : https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/turkey-uae-s400-deal-f35-return-deadlock/ – Turkey-UAE S-400 Deal Collapses, F-35 Return Frozen

… The deadlock therefore reflects incompatible security objectives: Turkey wants F-35 reinstatement and financial recovery, the UAE seeks stronger layered air defence without sacrificing Western technology, Russia retains contractual leverage, and Washington demands verifiable protection of stealth-related operational data. … Washington formally removed Turkey from the F-35 programme five days later, despite Ankara’s Tier-3 partnership, approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion investment, planned acquisition of as many as 100 aircraft and established participation in the fighter’s international supply chain … six F-35s manufactured for Turkey were withheld in the United States …

Regards

Dks01

NOT POLITICAL

The collapse of Canada-US trade talks may have an impact on RCAF aircraft purchases. Time will tell.

taraf

Dks01 It won’t. No more than it already has. Our current commitment to purchase a small number of F-35’s is a contract that we’ve signed, and we’re not in the habit of breaking that kind of deal. We want Lockheed to be willing to sell us weapons at some point in the future, so we’re going to honour the contract that we have.

Whether we’re going to sign any more/future deals? I guess we’ll see. The folks I know who are in the air force want the F-35. But they are softening on the Gripen. I think it’s a fait accompli that we’re going to get a mixed fleet that’s going to include technology transfer so we can build our own Gripens. That, in turn, is going to be very interesting because it has the potential to kickstart a domestic industry that’s been dead (at least as far as fighter aircraft) for decades.

Dks01

taraf I am no Casandra. Time will tell.

KingB71

Saab announced an unmanned fighter jet (drone?) recently to complement the Gripen

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/saab_unveils_unmanned_fighter_jet_for_joint_operations_with_gripen-19541.html

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/canadas-f-35-stealth-fighter-problem-is-even-worse-than-it-seems/ – Trade talks have collapsed, with new tariffs threatened on Canadian auto exports from the new year. Ottawa’s review of its fighter purchase was meant to finish last autumn and is still running.

… Ottawa has not fully scrapped the purchase, and more importantly, it is still set to buy the initial 16 F-35s under its deal with Washington. Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail reported that Canadian negotiators were looking to keep the issue of military dependence separate from the trade dispute, although this was becoming awkward. …

Noteworthy is this observation : “Ottawa said the [Saab] decision was not a contract yet.”

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE Apparently one of the side issues in the recently disrupted trade negotiations was a requirement to buy the F-35 and other US aircraft. Awkward is quite right.

HELLFIRE

We’re already in for the F-35 and P-8A, which other ones does the US expect us to buy? 🙄

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE A small order for the F-35, not a full fleet. I expect a split buy of aircraft going forward.

One also might keep an eye on the Arctic Security Cutter (ASC) icebreakers, a multi-ship, multi-billion dollar contract with Canadian and Finnish shipyards to develop and extend USCG capacity in the Arctic.

https://en.highnorthnews.com/business/us-signs-contracts-with-foreign-and-domestic-builders-to-finally-launch-long-delayed-icebreaker-fleet-overhaul/1096426

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