F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

MichelR

At least one contender got off the competition because it was obvious that it was rigged in favour of the F-35.

What we really need is something that prevents high-ranking officers with the power to pick equipment to work for any defence contractor for a period of time. I came across a YouTube video on a channel specialized in military aviation (former French military pilot) and he had a former Canadian pilot in to talk about the F-35. Well, turns out said pilot is a Lockheed-Martin test pilot, so I didn’t bother watching. I see enough ads already. 😃

HELLFIRE

MaynardKrebs with these proven detection technologies

Don’t forget the Mk I Mod 0 Occular Sensor, and the Mk I Mod 0 Aural Sensor too…

/snark

Regards

MaynardKrebs

Take a look at this video about the UK Phantom purchase of the mid-1960’s, especially the first 12 minutes where the discussion of Britain’s desire to NOT tie themselves to the vagaries of US political winds takes place. Our nimrod politicians and generals would be well advised to view this video

Donoreo

MaynardKrebs Our nimrod politicians

The Nimrod was a successful military plane: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawker_Siddeley_Nimrod

Dks01

Donoreo The Nimrod was a successful military plane:

Flew in one once, at about 1000 ft. over the Saskatchewan prairie. The Nimrod found the only slew in the whole section.

HELLFIRE

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/lockheed-martin-just-won-an-11-4-million-contract-to-upgrade-israels-f-35i-adir-funded-by-israel/ – Lockheed Martin Just Won an $11.4 Million Contract to Upgrade Israel’s F-35I Adir — Funded by Israel

… According to Defence Blog, the Navy awarded Lockheed Martin an $11.4 million contract modification to “develop additional software for Israel’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter fleet.” … The work will entail “three additional software data loads” as part of Israel’s System Development and Design Phase II effort; it is expected to be finished by 2030. …

Regards

MichelR

Dks01 An Argus. That was a while back. I remember when the Aurora won the competition to replace it.

Dks01

MichelR 1978. The is my favourite Aurora scheme. From 1983.

MichelR

Dks01 The good old days, before everything went gray everywhere.

HELLFIRE

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/canada-is-asking-a-question-no-u-s-ally-has-dared-to-ask-before-what-if-america-uses-the-f-35-as-leverage/ – Canada Is Asking A Question No U.S. Ally Has Dared to Ask Before: What If America Uses The F-35 as Leverage?

… This week, Simple Flying reported the United States’ warning that it would need a larger operational role in Canada’s airspace if the F-35 fleet were walked back. U.S. officials have complained that a non-F-35 fleet could leave gaps in the continent’s defense. … These are difficulties this country simply may have no time for in the current geopolitical context.

https://archive.ph/A9cpg (nonpaywall of the Simple Flying article)

… The current NORAD Commander, General Gregory Guillot, has publicly stated that 5th-generation stealth jets like the F-35 are not always critical for continental border defense … this suggests the security gap argument is more a political leverage tool than a purely military necessity. Under existing NORAD terms, US jets already have the legal ability to enter Canadian airspace for refueling and intercept missions without explicit permission for each flight. …

https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/05/18/f-35-software-delays-leave-uk-buying-time-with-us-glide-bombs/5241737 – F-35 software delays leave UK buying time with US glide bombs, MoD says StormBreaker will plug gap until homegrown SPEAR 3 integration lands

… The SPEAR missile is intended to fulfil this requirement, but although it is ready and passed test firings in 2024, the F-35 is not currently able to operate it. This capability should have been delivered by now through the Block 4 software update from F-35 prime contractor Lockheed Martin, but this has met with a series of delays. It is now expected in 2031, five years behind schedule. …

This quote stood out to me : “At the heart of any military planning is sound logistics. The UK sent an aircraft carrier with 24 F-35 fighter jets on it to the Middle East – with not enough spare parts to support them.”

Regards

Dks01

NOT A POLITICAL POST

I suspect the writing is on the wall…

The Trump administration is walking away from a long-running body that works on Canada-U.S. defence initiatives, claiming Canada has failed to meet its commitments on defence spending.

U.S. Undersecretary of War Elbridge Colby announced Monday the Pentagon is “pausing” participation in the Permanent Joint Board on Defence, an advisory body on North American continental defence that was established in 1940.

“Only by investing in our own defense capabilities will Americans and Canadians be safe, secure, and prosperous,” Colby wrote in a series of posts on X. “Unfortunately, Canada has failed to make credible progress on its defense commitments.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-us-joint-defence-board-9.7203211

bjlockie

So why would Canada buy F35s then? :-)

HELLFIRE

Cuz that’s what the RCAF wants and it’s the only “5th gen” fighter we can buy right now?

shrugs

Regards

Dks01

Top NORAD USAF General says F-35 not needed.

The U.S. commander of NORAD says fifth-generation fighters such as the F-35 aren’t needed to defend North America, undercutting the central claim by supporters of the aircraft that Canada requires such jets to protect the country.

But U.S. Air Force General Gregory M. Guillot, who heads the joint U.S.-Canada NORAD, says such advanced jets aren’t needed by his organization. “Frankly we don’t need fifth (generation) to defend our borders,” Guillot told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on March 19.

https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/norad-f-35-figher-jet-north-america

Dks01

A rare, secret, unreleased photo.

Somewhere, maybe locked in a vault at Department of National Defence headquarters, is one of the rarest recent photos involving the Canadian Forces.

In February, RCAF commander Lt.-Gen. Jamie Speiser-Blanchet travelled to Lockheed Martin’s Texas facility and got a glimpse of part of the fuselage of Canada’s first F-35 stealth fighter. A smiling Speiser-Blanchet autographed the aluminum bulkhead for what would be considered a landmark moment for the air force in the process of modernizing for the future battlefield.

https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/military-rcaf-f35-photo-air-force-canada

HELLFIRE

HELLFIRE Cuz that’s what the RCAF wants and it’s the only “5th gen” fighter we can buy right now?

Article pretty much crystalizes things in a nutshell : https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-f-35-stealth-fighter-kill-switch-no-one-wants-to-talk-about/ – The F-35 Stealth Fighter ‘Kill Switch’ No One Wants to Talk About

… While the U.S. cannot disable a foreign nation’s aircraft, it can ensure that the aircraft never receives maintenance parts or software upgrades, thereby allowing it to deteriorate over time. However, for a Western nation in search of a fifth-generation aircraft, where else is there to look? …

Regards

MichelR

HELLFIRE for a Western nation in search of a fifth-generation aircraft, where else is there to look?

Don’t need it.

Donoreo

“Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada has entered into negotiations to buy Swedish-made Saab early warning aircraft technology, picking a non-U.S. supplier as he makes good on a promise to reduce spending on American military gear.”

Dks01

Donoreo The dominoes begin to fall…

ITPS signed a contract for six M-346 Block 20 advanced jet trainers to expand the capabilities of the International Tactical Training Centre and position Canada as an international hub for NATO tactical flight training.

https://www.aviacionline.com/english/defence/canadian-company-itps-buys-six-leonardo-m-346-advanced-trainers-to-boost-nato-pilot-training_a6a160f0303d1047930eb235d

taraf

Donoreo Saab isn’t just a non-US supplier in this case: These planes are built on a Bombardier airframe, so it’s directly supporting Canadian industry.

I think it’s also a signal of what’s going to be the final decision on the F-35/Gripen debate, since Saab was positioning their early warning craft as a bundle deal with Gripens.

« Previous Page Next Page »