F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

MichelR

Dks01 I saw an interview with the Chief of Defense Staff on Radio-Canada and, while she tried to avoid responding to the question, her body language pretty much said it all, and she did say that they had indicated their preferred choice to the government, and it was now in their hands and not hers. So, F-35 is what they want. Plus you have Toddler to keep in mind.

bjlockie

MichelR Plus you have Toddler to keep in mind.

That is a reason to choose the Gripen but I don’t think the government will do elbows up in this case.
There is still too much trade dependent on the US.

HELLFIRE

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-first-export-aim260-a2a-australia-f35 – U.S. Approves First Ever Export of AIM-260 Next Generation Air-to-Air Missile to Enhance Australia’s F-35 Fighters

The United States Congress has cleared the first ever export of the new AIM-260A Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, under a package that includes $2.61 billion worth of missiles and $550 million in sustainment to equip the Royal Australian Air Force’s F-35A fighter units. … While progress towards development remained uncertain, requests for funding for serial production and procurements in 2025 indicated that the program had already approached or reached an end to development testing. …

FWIW. Buying kit is one thing. Having kit that actually works – ref. software issues noted by the DOTE 2025 report earlier – is another…

Regards

MichelR

bjlockie That is a reason to choose the Gripen but I don’t think the government will do elbows up in this case.
There is still too much trade dependent on the US.

That’s basically what I meant. Classic case of damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Hydraglass

At the end of the day its one of those win/win + lose/lose situations, and another major “complication” comes from the fact that we don’t actually buy F35’s from the US government - it’s a product we are buying from an aircraft company - Lockheed Martin - and if we burn all our bridges with Lockheed Martin, that’s a definite “LOSE” in the long run for us as a country, as there are a LOT of lockheed martin aircraft in Canada, that we need to support for generations to come, and there may be future lockheed martin aircraft and equipment we want as well - so we don’t REALLY want to go scorched earth with them as a company. Governments and administrations in the US last 4 years, companies making aircraft exist for centuries. The unfortunate part is the software for said aircraft IS controlled by the US military and US government - and thus puts us under their thumb when it comes to the actual operation of the hardware - and that can cause long term issues so there’s the lose. Gripen - we win with cheaper device, Saab loves Canada for it, we get control over the systems, its a pretty good set of hardware for our forces, that’s a win, but we piss off the big guy down south, we piss off lockheed martin, and it ruffles a lot of feathers - there’s that lose. Hard to really say what the “right” long term answer is - other than just buying both and not putting all our eggs in the F35 basket but buying enough to keep feathers unruffled.

taraf

I feel like the $8bn upgrade to CFB Goose Bay is related to this discussion. Not 100% sure how, as it could also be intended as a way to get around going through Thule to get to Alert, but a massive expansion to northern base that’s specifically called out as an improvement to NORAD capabilities seems like they’re preparing for basing a new type of aircraft there.

The fact that it’s also spitting distance from Greenland probably also has nothing to do with current geopolitical rhetoric….

Dks01

taraf Goose was a major SAC staging base and ADC base back in the day. The current sovereignty issues make base rebuilding and expansion a good thing to do.

HELLFIRE

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/canada-british-japanese-stealth-program-f35 – Canada Coordinates to Join British-Japanese Stealth Fighter Program to Reduce Reliance on U.S. F-35s

The United Kingdom, Japan and Italy are coordinating plans for the inclusion of Canada in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a next generation fighter program intended to deliver aircraft ready for active service by 2035. Canada has sought to join as an observer, which would allow the Canadian Defence Ministry to access selected classified program information without joining the development phase or sharing a similar burden of development costs … Canada’s interest in the GCAP program indicates possible plans to split fighter procurements between the F-35 and the new aircraft to reduce reliance on the United States, much has had previously reportedly been considered for the Gripen. …

On one hand, see the quote from The Hunt For Red October and “politicians keeping options open.”

On the other, GCAP – as far as I know – isn’t even at the paper airplane stage of things.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/indias_114_rafale_deal_stalled_over_source_code_access_france_fears_russian_hands_on_fighter_software_through_brahmosn-18071.html – India’s 114 Rafale Deal Stalled Over Source Code Access, France Fears Russian Hands on Fighter Software Through Brahmosn

Most likely, Paris and Delhi ran into the source code issue Indian side’s free access to updating Rafale onboard systems software; this looks quite like the truth, because this issue was already raised a year ago regarding even existing French fighters in India. … India has very close relations with russia in the defense sphere; this means russians already gain access to Rafale’s program code. …

Not directly related to the F-35 or Gripen, but the “Today’s Ally Is Tomorrow’s Competitor / (friend of my) Enemy / etc.,” I suppose is the takeaway here.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-initiates-major-upgrade-israeli-f35 – U.S. Initiates Major Upgrade For Israeli F-35 Stealth Fighters Amid Ceasefire with Iran

The F-35 fighter program’s primary contractor Lockheed Martin has been awarded a $11.4 million contract modification to develop additional software for Israel’s F-35 fleet, namely to produce three software data loads referred to as “productionized plus builds.” … Although Israeli personnel cannot fully access or modify the aircraft’s source code, they can ‘plug in’ additional code on top of it, including indigenous electronic warfare systems, making the aircraft unique. …

Regards

Dks01

In local news,

As part of its pitch to lure Canada to buy Gripen-E fighter jets, Saab has offered to establish a secure, sovereign data centre in Montreal to house critical, top-secret mission data and intelligence, CBC News has learned.

The company is framing it as a “unique advantage” in the battle to convince the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney to limit the purchase of U.S.-manufactured F-35s, which have all of their data stored at a Lockheed Martin centre in Fort Worth, Texas.

The purpose-built Saab data centre “will host all work on the fighter mission system,” Saab spokesperson Sierra Fullerton confirmed in a recent statement to CBC News.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/saab-lockheed-martin-fighters-data-defence-9.7157673

MichelR

Dks01 data centre in Montreal

In theory at least, that could eventually become a similar problem. Time will tell.

bjlockie

Top secret MISSION data for the F-35s is stored in Texas?
We don’t see this as a problem?

Donoreo

bjlockie Top secret MISSION data for the F-35s is stored in Texas?
We don’t see this as a problem?

Obviously it is, but even Europeans seem to be agreeing to it by buying the planes.

HELLFIRE

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/canada-planning-to-join-gcap-sixth-gen-fighter-program-ps-041226 – Canada Is Planning to Join the GCAP Sixth-Gen Fighter Program

… Any Canadian involvement in GCAP is still in its infancy. Yet, a formal announcement could be made as soon as July, when the defense ministers of the core members are slated to meet in the United Kingdom, where they are likely to review progress to date … however, Japan has expressed concerns about expanding full membership, as that could slow development if all the partners aren’t in agreement on key issues. …

…the old expression “herding cats” comes to mind… I still question just HOW far along any program is. Airframe, engines, avionics, performance specs, etc…

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://www.twz.com/air/f-35s-quarterbacking-drones-seen-as-gateway-to-usmcs-6th-gen-fighter – F-35s Quarterbacking Drones Seen As Gateway To USMC’s 6th Gen Fighter

The U.S. Marine Corps says it is making good progress toward fielding Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) type drones, starting with a landing gear-equipped version of Kratos’ XQ-58 Valkyrie. The service sees those aircraft, and potentially other CCAs, paired with its F-35s as a “bridge” to an entire family of next-generation air combat capabilities, which could include a sixth-generation crewed fighter. …

Article has a quote admitting it could be 10 years to get to full Block 4 standard.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/no_rush_to_arm_f_35_jets_with_200_km_weapon_despite_war_threat_with_russia-18283.html – No Rush to Arm F-35 Jets with 200-km Weapon Despite War Threat with russia

Although the integration of the Meteor and Spear 3 long-range missiles onto the F-35B fighter jet for the British began in 2019, completion is still expected in the early 2030s. However, government officials do not see this as a problem

Meteor and Spear 3 are UK-specific weapon systems. All ties back to Block 4 and the delays therein…

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-is-still-reviewing-plan-buy-us-fighter-jets-defence-minister-says-2026-04-27/ – Canada is still reviewing plan to buy US fighter jets, defense minister says

Canada is still reviewing its plan to buy 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, ‌Defence Minister David McGuinty said on Monday, adding that Ottawa could also purchase some foreign planes. … “The question of other jets from other countries is ⁠something that is on the table, that is part of the review,” he added, but gave no indication of when a decision might ⁠be made. …

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/canadas-f-35-review-and-trumps-threats-risk-excluding-the-u-s-from-ottawas-500-billion-defense-boom/ – Canada’s F-35 Review and Trump’s Threats Risk Excluding the U.S. from Ottawa’s $500 Billion Defense Boom

Currently, apart from the F-35 program, deals worth more than USD 35 billion are in the pipeline between the US and Canada. … These contracted defense deals with the US are becoming a political headache for the Canadian government. …

Mentions the HIMARS system, the combat management system for new River-class destroyers, the P-8A Poseidon aircraft, and MQ-9B SkyGuardian Drones that’s also in Canada’s plans. From that POV, can see why it’s not so easy to “Just Say No” to the F-35.

By that same token, that’s why Canadians put these guys into government…

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/no-escape-zone-f-35-stealth-fighter-is-testing-ramjet-meteor-missile-that-can-hit-mach-4/ – ‘No Escape Zone’: F-35 Stealth Fighter Is Testing ‘Ramjet’ Meteor Missile That Can Hit Mach 4

Nice little writeup about the Meteor missile, and why it’s so important.

Regards

MaynardKrebs

Been giving the whole fighter jet / submarine / AWACS acquisition thing some thought.

1. AWACS
The SAAB / Bombardier GlobalEye makes tons of sense. However, one addition to the airframe should be done - grab the air-air refuel socket from the Gripen and add it to the Global 6500 airframe. You never know haw long a mission you’ll need to fly in a ‘hot’ conflict, not how far will you be from a runway long enough to service you. Being able to refuel from a tanker is good insurance.

2. Fighters
I know that we’ve gone a long way down the path with Saab and Gripen, BUT… there may be other things to consider.

The Koreans have active service KF-21 Boramae fighters now. Twin GE F414 engines, longer range than Gripen, Gen. 4.5+ stealth with the current Mk1 build. Carries just about the same weapons. Mk 3 (5-ish years out) is supposed to be true Gen 5 stealth. Both the Gripen and the KF-21 are Mach 1.8+. Gripen probably holds the edge in field serviceability and rough runway capability. Longer-range and two engines of the KF-21 makes more sense for Arctic & coastal patrol

So, Saab builds AWAC we are considering and fighters we are considering.

But HANWA builds the Boramae, the subs we are considering, and has hooks into Hyundai (cars)

3. Submarines
Whithout having much knowledge about subs other than what a former RCN officer and I have chatted about, the mission choice of both the German and Korean subs essentially comes down to the difference of the German subs being able to launch cruise missiles, whereas the Korean sub can launch both cruise & ballistic missiles. I’m assuming that all other characteristics are similar - under ice performance, radiated noise, range/endurance.

So, do / should we want IRBM / ICBM capability?

4. Industrial Offsets
Saab would build Gripens here. Could Hanwa be convinced to build 100+ KF-21’s here? Hanwa has a licence to build the entire GE F414 engine - Saab / Volvo does not. In fairness, Hanwa does not yet build the entire engine - they still get some key components from GE, but that is scheduled to change.

Seems like close to a done deal with Saab over GlobalEye, so we probably have about as sweet a deal with Saab as we could get if we also chose the Gripen.

So, what could we get with Hanwa? Subs, with lots of local offsets; aircraft production?? Car factory??
What’s in it for Hanwa?
Safe offshore production 2nd source for key defence items in case the DPRK gets frisky. We are already in bed with Korea in the TPP.

What about the German subs? Our Nato buddies might get miffed if we chose Korean subs.

What if we upped the sub purchase to 16? Get 8 German subs for the Atlantic, 8 Korean subs for the Pacific? Probably not a great idea to split the vessel type, but as the cost of a soother for both political alliances, maybe it’s ok.

Fly-Off
So, back to the aircraft for a moment….how about a shootout? Sort of like a mini-Red Flag exercise to help choose which fighter we should get.

Fly two GlobalEye and four Gripen E to Korea. Bring a bunch of spare parts and people on our C-17’s.
Have a series of mock dogfights between the Gripen’s and the KF-21 - each with Swedish and Korean ‘top guns’ in the cockpit - no hold barred BVR and WVR dogfights and ground attack.

Canadian & Swedish (or other ‘neutral’ GlobalEye operators) at the control stations inside the each GlobalEye aircraft, to record and observe the efficacy of each of the fighters. One GlobalEye to control the KF-21’s, the other to control the Gripen’s. It’s a semi-realistic Red / Blue situation.

If Saab & Hanwa got on-board with a fly-off, this could probably get sorted out mid-summer. Hold off on the sub purchase until this was done, and possibly get a car deal in as well. Too bad Saab doesn’t still make cars ☹

6th Gen Stealth & Loyal Wingman Drones
Finally, there is what comes next, and who we might wish to partner with. Saab is innovative, nimble, and has good ideas for the future of air power projection & defence. Italy, UK, Japan have their own ideas, and Canada is already nosing around this group. Japan has been working at this for MANY years, and probably has a better sense of it than the UK or Italy. But this is all a good 20 years before any operational aircraft is available. But the drones should be with us well before that.

MaynardKrebs

HELLFIRE

Our first batch of F-35’s will be equipped with these proven detection technologies

https://www.ebay.ca/itm/204188303144

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