Falcons just beat the Rams last night, and now the NFCS is potential chaos for the final week. Week 18 is Bucs vs Panthers and Falcons vs Saints. We could theoretically have a three-way tie between the Bucs/Panthers/Falcons all at 8-9.
(If the Panthers win, they win the division at 9-8 and the Falcons/Saints game has zero effect on the playoffs.)
BUT….If the Bucs win and the Falcons lose next week, the Bucs would win a 2 way tiebreaker with the Panthers (both 8-9), due to having a better record amongst the division (4-2 vs 3-3).
BUT BUT… if the Bucs and Falcons both win next week, it creates a 3 way tie at 8-9 and the winner is determined by head-to-head record amongst the three teams.
In this scenario, the Panthers would have the best head-to-head record at 3-1 (Swept the Falcons and split with the Bucs), with the Bucs having a head-to-head record of 2-2 (split with both Carolina and Atlanta), and the Falcons are last with a record of 1-3 (Only beat the Bucs once, lost the other 3 head-to-head matchups).
Essentially, the Panthers need either a win OR a Falcons win, and the Bucs need a win AND a Falcons loss. If the Bucs and Falcons both win next week, it essentially comes down to the fact that the Panthers swept the Falcons and the Bucs didn’t.
and yes, we’d have another sub-.500 team hosting a playoff game by virtue of winning a lousy division
NFC South fever…CATCH IT! 🙂
