A slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season

telcodad · 2025-06-11T16:39:59+00:00

Tropical activity has been staying well away from the Eastern U.S.,, as so far all storms have developed in the eastern Pacific. Saharan dust and wind shear have been suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic, which is still awaiting its first named tropical storm of the season. According to AccuWeather, it is likely to remain quiet through the end of June: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hazy-sky-to-persist-as-canadian-wildfire-smoke-and-saharan-dust-invade-us/1781776 Sluggish start to Atlantic hurricane season By Rachel Tucker, WFLA Forida - June 10, 2025 https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/sluggish-start-to-atlantic-hurricane-season-tracking-the-tropics/ The tropics remain quiet as we enter the second week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No new tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Splitpair

Even better it seems to have spawned within a outer band a line of heavy weather which is now riding over the SE Tri-County area moving NW, which will pass over mostly grassland and hopefully will be over this area by morning dumping some serious amounts of rain.

InternetJeff

broknsymetry A slow moving system is difficult to predict even with good models. Consider the trajectory of a fast moving car. It is easy to predict its path 30 seconds from now, but a slow moving car could take any number of turns in that same time.

Which is why the media should not hype these “spaghetti” models beyond 48-72 hours. Good grief, a bunch of those models had Barry going across central Mexico, and even into the Pacific. Also (mentioned up thread) was the fiasco with Ian in 2022. For that storm I remember stories of people being panicked by the media and buying up plywood and storm supplies all the way from Gainesville to Mobile where all of those erroneous advanced spaghetti tracks pointed to, where in fact the storm made landfall in the vicinity of Fort Myers, where none of the advanced spaghetti tracks had pointed to. Publicizing “predictions” with up to a 640 mile coastal error range is irresponsible.

Astyanax

telcodad This will bring multiple rounds of rain and storms with up to 3 inches of rain possible in some areas. The main concern is flooding along with lightning.

The sun was shining and was pretty nice out by noon. 🙄

Splitpair

InternetJeff where in fact the storm made landfall in the vicinity of Fort Myers, where none of the advanced spaghetti tracks had pointed to. Publicizing “predictions” with up to a 640 mile coastal error range is irresponsible.

And they placed peoples lives in danger by falsely scaring them into heading over here, since there was insufficent shelter capacity to handle the inrush of out of towners as a result many of them rode out the storm in their vehicles while sitting in parking lots.

Total irresponsibility on the part of the NWS/NHC with all their Chicken Little warnings of death and destruction for anyone who didn’t evacuate to a safer part of the state.

Heat84

Splitpair Which as any lifetime Floridian can tell you that map is incorrect, there is only north, central and south Florida, the state is not divided east to west.

Those regions have more to do with utility services then actual geography.

Yeah. In 48.5 years, I’ve only heard of North, Central, and South. And also the panhandle. North Florida is usually called the panhandle. I think the only time I’ve heard North Florida is UNF(University of North Florida).

Beachie

West Central Florida here, nearly 50 years.

Splitpair

Heat84 North Florida is usually called the panhandle.

Or Florabama.

broknsymetry

Splitpair Or Florabama.

Yep, and NE FL is Florgia.

telcodad

Still not much activity in the Atlantic so far, just a few tropical waves being tracked right now:

National Hurricane Center now tracking 4 waves in Atlantic, Caribbean, rain from Gulf system
C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY, Florida - July 25, 2025
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/national-hurricane-center-now-tracking-120744153.html

However, activity may be starting up soon:

… A sluggish start to the season doesn’t mean we won’t see storms coming up, though. WeatherTiger’s Dr. Ryan Truchelut still sees plenty of tropical activity in our future.

“My guess is the first half of the season will continue to be dominated by an unfavorable environment and fewer storms,” Truchelut said.

[Edited by Moderator to comply with Guidelines for Posting News Articles]

HooRU

With the FEMA issues, we are dodging a bullet.

Heat84

telcodad Still not much activity in the Atlantic so far…

Yeah, I’m getting bored.

Splitpair

Heat84 Yeah, I’m getting bored.

Shhh don’t put a jinx on us. ;-)

Heat84

Splitpair

Or be careful what I wish for.😅😳

telcodad

Tropical activity may be starting to increase now:

Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
A so-far unremarkable Atlantic hurricane season is heading for a ‘pivot point,’ forecasters warn. Here’s what to expect.
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY - July 27, 2025
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2025/07/27/hurricane-season-2025-forecast/85371159007/

The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin.

“The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks,” said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY.

WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that “we’re already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up… The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24’s long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August.” …

Bryan Norcross: Development chances inching up across the Atlantic
By Bryan Norcross, Fox Weather - August 3, 2025
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/bryan-norcross-hurricane-analysis-august-3-2025

Updated at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 3, 2025

The National Hurricane Center is drawing two areas in the Atlantic where systems could develop. The one off the Carolina coast has a decent chance of being named Dexter over the next day or two. In the middle of the Atlantic, an African disturbance has a chance to develop later this week somewhere in that giant lemon.

egeezer

Also see
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/august-and-everything-after-hurricane-c0e

broknsymetry

TS Erin forms…

Heat84

broknsymetry
Yay!😛 😲

Beachie

Heat84
Curious here, how many hurricanes have you experienced?

WalterDnes

I prefer the Canadian map because it gives the forecasted sustained windspeed. Note that the Canadian Hurricane Centre uses Atlantic time zone versus Eastern time zone on the US map. The actual times are the same. The URL is https://weather.gc.ca/data/hurricane_images/track.png

Astyanax

WalterDnes I prefer the Canadian map because it gives the forecasted sustained windspeed

…and shows almost none of the American coastline it’s most likely going to affect.

I love the mysterious solid red line in the middle of the ocean. Is that the “When Canadians need to start giving a damn” line? LOL! Frankly if I were you I wouldn’t blame you. 🙂

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