A slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season

telcodad · 2025-06-11T16:39:59+00:00

Tropical activity has been staying well away from the Eastern U.S.,, as so far all storms have developed in the eastern Pacific. Saharan dust and wind shear have been suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic, which is still awaiting its first named tropical storm of the season. According to AccuWeather, it is likely to remain quiet through the end of June: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hazy-sky-to-persist-as-canadian-wildfire-smoke-and-saharan-dust-invade-us/1781776 Sluggish start to Atlantic hurricane season By Rachel Tucker, WFLA Forida - June 10, 2025 https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/sluggish-start-to-atlantic-hurricane-season-tracking-the-tropics/ The tropics remain quiet as we enter the second week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No new tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

WalterDnes

Astyanax …and shows almost none of the American coastline it’s most likely going to affect.

The map is dynamic. Its main purpose is to display the latest 5-day forecast track, which is currently in the tropical equatorial area. As the 5-day track edges westward so too does the viewport. The latest map (below) shows more of the Caribbean and the US east coast. The track will always be in the viewport. By the time the 5th day of the track is nearing US landfall, that area will be in the map viewport too.

Heat84

Beachie Curious here, how many hurricanes have you experienced?

I’ve lived in Southeast Florida my whole life(48 .5 years). You can figure out yourself how many. Although I feel like I’m stealing valor when I say went through Andrew since I was semi-safe in Northern Broward County while people in Dade County were going through hell. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced cat 4 or 5 conditions.

I know how it sounds to cheer for a hurricane, but I’m a weather geek. I’m also used to tropical weather. Whenever a cat 3 or above is coming towards me, part of me is nervous, but the other part of me can’t wait for it to get here. During Andrew, everyone else in the house went to sleep while I stayed up until I fell asleep listening to the coverage on the radio or watching it on the hand held color TV I brought with me(We lost power halfway through the night).

Beachie

Heat84
I’ve got you beat by a few of years living in Pinellas County. I’ve been through more than a few tropical storms and brushed by many Hurricanes including last years three-peat of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricanes Helene and Milton which were devastating to this area and not even a direct hit, the last time being in 1921.

Last year driving down block after block of homes (that were inland) in the aftermath with their entire contents next to the street waiting to be picked up and dumped is pretty sobering. Living without electricity in 95°+ weather for weeks is not a lot of fun, either.

So in other words, weather geek away but I hope you never have to deal with a hurricane or 3 🙂

HooRU

Cheering for devastation is heartless.

GeekGirl1

Heat84 During Andrew, everyone else in the house went to sleep while I stayed up until I fell asleep listening to the coverage on the radio or watching it on the hand held color TV I brought with me(We lost power halfway through the night).

I got married a few days before Andrew. My husband and I were weather geeks and needed to decide where to go on our honeymoon. North or South (of Philly)? We saw a disturbance off the African coast and said “Let’s go North”. We watched Andrew roll over Florida from the TV in our Maine hotel room.

I was offline for 6 days when Sandy hit. Not fun.

Here’s the US version: Tropical Storm Erin It looks about the same as WalterDnes’ Canadian model.

Sparkchaser

As long as they stay south of NC. Hurricane Helene ruined all our plans last year. This year, going to try it again. When we were making reservations, Hilton kept reminding us of the cancels from last year.
So, were trying for mid October. Fingers crossed.

HooRU

Last year I said the New England Area would have another Sandy or worse this year. I hope I’m wrong but we’ve had a bumper crop of 90’s+ stretches, I think 5 of them? It might not happen in August, maybe September and it will be the last bad storm in the USA if it happens for the year. Or second to last.

Dks01

Sparkchaser As long as they stay south of NC. Hurricane Helene ruined all our plans last year.

Dks01

Latest Canadian Hurricane Centre forecast. The blue lines are Environment and Natural Resources’ Marine weather forecast zones . I believe the red line is the demarcation point between oceanic forecast zones of responsibility. The Canadian map draws information from the US national Hurricane Centre.

Astyanax

Dks01 I believe the red line is the demarcation point between oceanic forecast zones of responsibility.

That basically comports with my interpretation of it. 😉

Astyanax

Heat84 I’ve lived in Southeast Florida my whole life(48 .5 years). You can figure out yourself how many. Although I feel like I’m stealing valor when I say went through Andrew since I was semi-safe in Northern Broward County while people in Dade County were going through hell. I don’t think I’ve ever experienced cat 4 or 5 conditions.

I’ve lived in Brevard county since 1981 and can’t count the number of hurricanes I’ve been through. All those years the worst hurricanes were Frances/Jean in 2004. They both landed about 2 weeks apart within about 50 miles of their respective landing spots. They might as well have been one big long hurricane. Nevertheless Brevard county here has officially never experienced sustained hurricane-force winds since Hurricane David in 1979. We were seconds away from breaking that record with Hurricane Nicole in 2022 but never did.

Heat84

Astyanax

I wonder if my parents evacuated for David. They were only living 2 or 3 miles from the ocean(Depending on which house they were living in at the time).

Dks01

Astyanax Zone of responsibility are by international agreement. Those are not broken. Yet.

Astyanax

Dks01 Zone of responsibility are by international agreement. Those are not broken. Yet.

I don’t know why you’d want to break it.

Astyanax

WalterDnes

Spaghetti models aren’t looking good for you guys.

InternetJeff

Astyanax Spaghetti models aren’t looking good for you guys.

Not to repeat my rant over “spaghetti” models, but those models are useless more than 48-72 hours out for specific landfall, being hundreds of miles apart in their predictions.

However, the general tendency does look good for you guys down in Florida.

There is some basis for a recurring 90-year cycle as far as where these storms go. Back in the 1930’s some of these storms hit the Northeast US. My Dad used to tell stories about one really bad one he lived through in Connecticut. Having not experIenced (or being prepared for) direct hits from strong tropical hurricanes in so many decades, something hitting NYC or Boston would be an epic dIsaster.

Edit: That loan track headed straight for Nicaragua is hilarious. I wonder how many times that model has been accurate.

Dks01

You can see the dynamic movement of the latest map.

Beachie

Astyanax All those years the worst hurricanes were Frances/Jean in 2004.

Been there, done that and still have the t-shirt Bright House Networks had made for those of us tasked with running the cable company during evacuations. Charley’s right turn was a blessing for Pinellas County and misery for Fort Myers 8/13, 21 years ago today. A lot of folks on the west coast evacuated to Orlando and dealt with 100+ mph winds there.

Astyanax

InternetJeff Edit: That loan track headed straight for Nicaragua is hilarious. I wonder how many times that model has been accurate.

Probably was the same one that had Dorian in 2019 making landfall at Bizzarro’s Pizza in Indialantic going on to Alabama. 😄

Astyanax

Beachie Been there, done that and still have the t-shirt Bright House Networks had made for those of us tasked with running the cable company during evacuations. Charley’s right turn was a blessing for Pinellas County and misery for Fort Myers 8/13, 21 years ago today. A lot of folks on the west coast evacuated to Orlando and dealt with 100+ mph winds there.

You earned it! Didn’t get much from Charley but Frances/Jean knocked us out of power for almost a week in the searing heat afterwards. Thankfully we had a pool but it didn’t stay cool for long after all the rainwater heated back up. Was able to pick out all the screen enclosure wreckage out of it though during that time. The screen enclosure that replaced it was finally done in by Ian/Nicole in 2022 not to be replaced again.

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