A slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season

telcodad · 2025-06-11T16:39:59+00:00

Tropical activity has been staying well away from the Eastern U.S.,, as so far all storms have developed in the eastern Pacific. Saharan dust and wind shear have been suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic, which is still awaiting its first named tropical storm of the season. According to AccuWeather, it is likely to remain quiet through the end of June: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hazy-sky-to-persist-as-canadian-wildfire-smoke-and-saharan-dust-invade-us/1781776 Sluggish start to Atlantic hurricane season By Rachel Tucker, WFLA Forida - June 10, 2025 https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/sluggish-start-to-atlantic-hurricane-season-tracking-the-tropics/ The tropics remain quiet as we enter the second week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No new tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

InternetJeff

telcodad Colorado State University made a slight adjustment to its 2025 hurricane season forecast. CSU is now calling for a “slightly above average” season compared to its previous forecast of “above average.”

Yeah, they’ll continue to change their predictions after-the-fact if their predictions continue to fail to pan out.

Splitpair

InternetJeff Yeah, they’ll continue to change their predictions after-the-fact if their predictions continue to fail to pan out.

As they do each year.

telcodad

Tropical Depression could form by mid-week: NHC
By Ashley Suter, WFLA - July 15, 2025
https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tropical-depression-could-form-by-mid-week-nhc/

An area of low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida is gradually becoming better defined, the National Hurricane Center announced. The system is expected to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and into tonight before reaching the northeastern Gulf by the middle of this week. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain disorganized.

According to NHC, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding over parts of Florida and north-central Gulf through mid-week. The chance of formation in the next 48 hours is 40 percent, and in the next seven days, the chance of formation is 40 percent.

Astyanax

telcodad

Yeah it’s been a rainy morning. Great to sleep in on my day off. 😉

InternetJeff

That spaghetti chart cracks me up. As in the past, random predictions beyond 72 hours are futile.

Splitpair

InternetJeff That spaghetti chart cracks me up. As in the past, random predictions beyond 72 hours are futile.

They are really not worth paying attention to, the NHC shows the storm just inside the east coast of FL, in reality it is almost to the west coast of FL moving WNW rather quickly, however it is a weak storm as such it is spread out quite a bit with the outer bands reaching down to Monroe County.

But it’s really nothing more than a rainmaker so far, which if fine with me we can always use the rain.

telcodad

Splitpair But it’s really nothing more than a rainmaker so far

Yeah:

Invest 93-L moving over Central Florida today; could develop more when it enters Gulf
By Cam Tran, Meteorologist, WESH - July 15, 2025 2:09 PM EDT
https://www.wesh.com/article/rain-florida-invest-93l-tropical-system-gulf/65410039

Invest 93-L is looking better organized Tuesday morning and will move over Central Florida throughout the day.

This will bring multiple rounds of rain and storms with up to 3 inches of rain possible in some areas. The main concern is flooding along with lightning.

93-L will move into the Gulf on Wednesday where it will continue to act like a water hose, pumping a lot of moisture toward Central Florida so rain chances remain high for us through late week regardless of any tropical development. ….

Splitpair

telcodad Yeah:

Invest 93-L moving over Central Florida today; could develop more when it enters Gulf
By Cam Tran, Meteorologist, WESH - July 15, 2025 2:09 PM EDT

It is amazing how wrong media weathermen can be, the storm is moving over North Florida not central Florida.

What a bunch of idiots they are, that guy claims to be a Meteorologist and cannot get basic geography correct, it’s no wonder I never watch TV news or weather.

telcodad

Splitpair It is amazing how wrong media weathermen can be, the storm is moving over North Florida not central Florida.

What a bunch of idiots they are, that guy claims to be a Meteorologist and cannot get basic geography correct,

IDK, it looks to me that the storm is kinda in-between the North and Central parts of the state.

It’s like here in Central NJ. Some people say there is only North and South NJ, with Southern NJ the part south of the Raritan River. However, I don’t agree - where I am is not North NJ and not South NJ, I’m located in between - in Central NJ!

Where is Central Jersey? It may be bigger than you think
NJ101.5 - April 16, 2024
https://nj1015.com/where-is-central-jersey-it-may-be-bigger-than-you-think

… According to responses from New Jersey residents, Central Jersey consists of all of Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer, and Monmouth counties (the counties that Monmouth Poll considers to be in Central Jersey). But the region also includes portions of Union and Ocean Counties, according to the folks who live there. …

dave

Heat84 Maybe somebody was controlling it and that was a dry run.

Oh, here we go…

Splitpair

telcodad IDK, it looks to me that the storm is kinda in-between the North and Central parts of the state.

Na that is what we in Florida call North Florida, central is is closer to the center between north and south. ;-)

Guy54435

Here is a floridasmart com breakdown of Florida.
https://www.floridasmart.com

Splitpair

Guy54435 Here is a floridasmart com breakdown of Florida.

Which as any lifetime Floridian can tell you that map is incorrect, there is only north, central and south Florida, the state is not divided east to west.

Those regions have more to do with utility services then actual geography.

broknsymetry

InternetJeff That spaghetti chart cracks me up. As in the past, random predictions beyond 72 hours are futile.

A slow moving system is difficult to predict even with good models. Consider the trajectory of a fast moving car. It is easy to predict its path 30 seconds from now, but a slow moving car could take any number of turns in that same time.

broknsymetry

Splitpair It is amazing how wrong media weathermen can be, the storm is moving over North Florida not central Florida.

The center of the system is moving over North Florida - the storms are developing on its southern edge.

broknsymetry

Splitpair there is only north, central and south Florida,

There is the Florida Peninsula and the n there is the Florida Panhandle, which is arguably a different country altogether.

Splitpair

broknsymetry The center of the system is moving over North Florida - the storms are developing on its southern edge.

That is what I already stated, the storm has weak circulation therefore it is very large.

Splitpair

broknsymetry There is the Florida Peninsula and the n there is the Florida Panhandle, which is arguably a different country altogether.

Not a different country but a population that is more “old southern” versus down southeast which has become populated with many, too many in my opinion from the NE, like NY and NJ who migrated to SFL and totally effed up that area.

Guy54435

Splitpair I won’t argue with a local, But that map makes more sense than a Florida map in only three sections. That is how I always described where certain places are, but then again I have always looked at all states regionally, unto themselves.

Splitpair

It is now off the west coast of FL and appears to have changed course to more SW, that should allow it to gain more energy from the warm Gulf waters and maybe intensify a tad, which may drive more rain into SW Florida where we really need it,

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