Weather

AppleGuy · 2025-01-20T00:05:49+00:00

This wouldn't be a Canadian Chat without discussing "the weather". Got some brutal cold happening. And a good chunk of Canada has weather alert. https://weather.gc.ca/?center=62.41779356,-106.13816077&zoom=3

Hydraglass

Dks01 Our forecast for Kingston looks fairly nice out this way - snow tonight ending tomorrow AM early, 15cm, and then basically sunny/clear all the way through Wednesday night, possible snow (60%) Thursday, and then clear again through next weekend -- for mid February that's fairly reasonable -- also nothing cold (-12 overnight low is the lowest, most daytime highs between -4 and 0)

Avernar

Hydraglass The snow they've been calling for Today has finally started here.

Dks01

Hydraglass looks like mess here. CNN is reporting 5 consecutive storms this coming week across the US. We will be on the northern edge with lake enhancement. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/07/weather/winter-storms-midwest-northeast-climate/index.html

mrweather

Started in Mississauga about 20 min ago.

[deleted]

Flurry has started in Scarborough. 10-15cm they say, who knows.

We haven't had a big storm yet. this winter, but snow has been on the ground for about a month now. Not that this would be a big storm, but it would be the most so far.

Donoreo

I have one daughter home from university to help me shovel tomorrow 🙂

mrweather

Updated forecast at 6:19 has the total dialed back to 10cm for here. Radar shows it's pretty fast moving.

Avernar

They upgraded the winter weather travel advisory to a snowfall warning here. Saying 15-20cm possible.

Avernar

Donoreo

Updated again to add another 2cm by 8 AM, it has been "done" by 5, but it did start snowing again about 6

[deleted]

Here in Scarborough it ended up to about 15cm on the nose, still on and off flurries at just about noon.

Not super heavy but enough for the blower to get its first run of the year.

digitalfutur

Weather summary
for Ontario and the National Capital Region
issued by Environment Canada
at 11:35 a.m. EST Sunday 9 February 2025.

Discussion.

A low pressure system brought snow to southwestern Ontario and much
of the Greater Golden Horseshoe Saturday February 8 into Sunday
February 9.

The following is a summary of weather event information received by
Environment Canada.

Summary of snow amounts in centimetres as of 10 A.M. February 9:

Oakville 19*
Goderich 18
Cambridge 17*
Kitchener 16*
Guelph 15
Pearson Airport 15
Toronto Downtown 13
Scarborough south 13*
Elora 12
Ontario Storm Prediction Centre in North York 12
Brantford 11
Hamilton Airport 10
Mount Forest 10
St. Catharines Airport 9
London Airport 9
Richmond Hill north 8.5*
Welland 7
King City 7

denotes volunteer observations

Another storm on tap for Wed evg / Thurs, 5-10 cm, then a more intense system Sat-Sun, 20 cm+ possible, though a bit early right now to be definitive.

mrweather

We got close to 20cm. The heaviest dumping was in a narrow band running along the western end of the GTA. Would explain the dropoff in Niagara and north of Highway 7.

ZZZZZZZ

We've had a mild Winter till last week when the Polar vortex hit with -15* temps....-17 right now. 🙁

digitalfutur

SWSs for all of southern and central Ontario starting Wed evening. Areas south of the 401 along the lake Erie shoreline will see less than 5 cm of snow as temps will rise to above freezing due the passage of a warm front. The GTA and along the lake Ontario shoreline should get about 10 cm before the change to rain/snow mix or all rain.
If temps are slightly colder or warmer than forecast, snow accumulation amounts will change accordingly, but model consensus is pretty consistent for the broad pattern.

Avernar

digitalfutur Yep. Although the Lake Erie shoreline statement is now saying up to 10cm transitioning to freezing rain:

The next band up is now saying possibly exceeding 15cm before transitioning to freezing rain:

Next layer after that is 20 to 40cm:

Looks like we're getting an ice cream layer cake.

digitalfutur

Avernar True enough but if the freezing rain happens, ice accretion will be minimal along the lake Erie shoreline, 2-3mm as temps will rise fairly quickly to +1 or +2.

Avernar

digitalfutur That's good news. But you know people are still going to drive before it all melts.

mrweather

Any insight on the Feb 15 storm?

WalterDnes

mrweather

mrweather Any insight on the Feb 15 storm?

This is at the extreme end of forecast reliability. Norwegian world model for Toronto https://www.yr.no/en/forecast/daily-table/2-6167865/Canada/Ontario/Toronto gives amounts in "water equivalant". Quick-n-dirty rule of thumb; 1 mm water equivalant equals 1 cm snow. Current forecast is 13 mm Saturday and 6.9 mm Sunday. That combines to approx 20 cm of snow (OUCH!).

CMC (Canadian Meteorological Centre) hourly forecast for 18Z (1:00 PM) Saturday follows, showing snow hitting the GTA.

WalterDnes

WalterDnes
SWS continues. Here is Toronto as a sample

4:04 AM EST Tuesday 11 February 2025
Special Weather Statement in effect for:

City of Toronto

Winter storm with snow and freezing rain possible late Wednesday into Thursday.

What:
Snowfall amounts possibly exceeding 15 cm.
Poor visibility in heavy snow and local blowing snow.
Risk of freezing rain.

When:
Beginning Wednesday evening and ending Thursday.

Additional information:
Significant snowfall associated with a low pressure system is likely for the area beginning Wednesday evening. Confidence in the exact track of the low pressure system is uncertain at this point, but it is likely that snow will transition to freezing rain or rain late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

If the track of the low pressure system shifts farther south, precipitation will remain predominantly snow, and significantly higher amounts will be possible.

Regardless of the track of the weather system, hazardous travel conditions are likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Motorists are urged to consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ONstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.

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