F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

GrumpyCanadian

HELLFIRE That was a good summary. Frankly, short of a presidential charm offensive, bordering on an outright apology (yeah, right!), with some serious concessions from Lockheed Martin thrown in for good measure, I would expect that the SAAB deal is just about a foregone conclusion. It will surprise no one if I say that I hope that that ends up being the case.

HELLFIRE

My own crack at things found this, FWIW :

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/corporate/reports-publications/departmental-results-report/2024-25-index/status-report-transformational-major-capital-projects.html – Status report on transformational and major capital projects

No discernable date, quotes verbatim “30 companies across Canada within the Canadian aerospace and defence industry have been awarded over $3.3 billion in contracts to support the global F-35 fleet.”

https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2011/dpb-pbo/YN5-31-2011-eng.pdf – An Estimate of the Fiscal Impact of Canada’s Proposed Acquisition of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter

Dated March 10, 2011, I glazed over trying to read “Cost Analysis,” but “Industrial And Regional Benefits” was a worthwhile readover.

https://www.queensu.ca/cidp/sites/cidpwww/files/uploaded_files/Claxton16web.pdf – Canada, Democracy and the F-35

Dated 2012, gives a VERY good history of the F-35 program overall and Canada’s part in it so far.

https://natoassociation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/The-F-35-Fighter-A-Logical-CF-18-Replacement-Final.pdf – THE F-35 FIGHTER: A LOGICAL CF-18 REPLACEMENT

Dated 2017, I gotta admit, opening yoru document with that old wound of the Sea King replacement cluster f**k is a GREAT way to remind me what mess THAT exercise was, and hopefully a cautionary tale…

The contract was cancelled only a few days after Chretien took office costing the taxpayers
almost a half a billion dollars in cancellation fees and lost jobs. It led to a subsequent contract for
fifteen of the same aircraft in the Search and Rescue role five years later. All these aircraft were
built overseas with no Canadian industrial benefit. A much delayed ship-borne helicopter
contract was signed after another four years for aircraft that are only now coming into service
fifteen years later.1 The true total cost of the cancellation including the need to operate a dual
fleet and the requirement to keep the old Sea King helicopters flying for another twenty plus
years will likely never be calculated. But it is indicative of the damage that can be done when
politicians interfere with the process that is supposed to be at arms length.

The paper’s conclusions clearly favor the F-35, but I’ll have to do some reading into this, out of interest.

https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/351/305/Anon05.pdf – F-35 Sustainment Challenges: Considerations for the RCAF

Dated 2024 - 2025, quotes that “The RCAF’s aircraft are to be delivered at Block 4 standard…,” but again, I’m taking that with the appropriate NaCl intake.

https://search.open.canada.ca/qpnotes/record/pwgsc-tpsgc%2CPSPC-2024-QP-00033 – Question Period Note: Future Fighter Capability Project

Dated Aug 28, 2024, of note is this

If pressed on delays related to F-35 Block 4 issues:
This question is best answered by my Department of National Defence colleague

If pressed on Canadian industry opportunities:
The approach to select engine and airframe maintenance depots in Canada is under analysis by the Future Fighter Capability Project team

Typical governmental doublespeak 🙄 🙄

https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_oag_202506_02_e_44643.html – 2025 Reports 1 to 4 of the Auditor General of Canada to the Parliament of Canada : Report 2—Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability

No discernable date, Will have to read this over, just from a personal curiousity POV 😃

ADDENDUM
In terms of impact on Canada’s economy, I found these :

https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/aerospace-defence/en/resources/canadian-industrial-participation-f-35-joint-strike-fighter-program – Canadian Industrial Participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program reports, only goes up to 2014 though

https://www.f35.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/aero/f35/documents/OMX_F35_2020.pdf – Economic Impact Report for Canada, dated Feb 2020.

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2022/11/14/inside-block-4-the-mostly-secret-plan-for-making-the-f-35-fighter-even-more-lethal/ – Inside Block 4—The Mostly Secret Plan For Making The F-35 Fighter Even More Lethal

… My purpose here is to describe in simple terms what Block 4 entails, to the extent that can be described publicly. … The [TR-3] retrofits require about 14 days of downtime and will be performed by Lockheed field teams during scheduled maintenance. …

…with your car in the shop, you at least get a loaner… with a downed fighter jet getting upgrades?

Regards

Dks01

Even the King is coming. Saab may build aircraft in Canada for Ukraine. I could see a mixed buy of F-35 fighters for NORAD and the Gripen for our NATO commitment. We have dome that before.

HELLFIRE

From the Auditor General’s Report, this stood out to me :

2.50 We also found that not all the required weapons would be
purchased through the Future Fighter Capability Project. While National
Defence was responsible for defining the type and quantities of weapons
needed for the CF-35A, under the project, it was planning to acquire
only some of the weapons needed to reach Full Operational Capability
in 2033–34. Missiles estimated to cost an additional $1.5 billion were
also needed to make the CF-35A fully operational over the same time
frame. These were to be acquired through other advanced air weapons
projects. However, we noted that some of these missiles could be used
by the CF-18s during the transition.

IIRC, Canada purchased AIM-120D missiles back in 2017, and AIM-9X missiles last year…

Dks01 I could see a mixed buy of F-35 fighters for NORAD and the Gripen for our NATO commitment.

Same, if only as a hedge / “not putting all your eggs in one basket” POV, but the counterarguement to that goes “two different planes, two different supply chains, two different training pipelines… all drawing from the same limited pool of budgets and personnel.”

That’s exacerbated in the AG’s report Section 2.25 - 2.27.

“…in a land of (potentially) bad options…”

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE In the 1960’s through mid 80’s Canada had three different fighters. This isn’t our first rodeo.

KingB71

If the F-35 will be the CF - 35 what would the Gripen be designated? (I know, I know, putting that cart before the horse and all)

Donoreo

KingB71 If the F-35 will be the CF - 35

It may not be. Our F-18s are called CF-188s officially.

MichelR

Dks01 We don’t need F-35s for NORAD. That’s some made-up garbage that the U.S. has been regurgitating forever so we buy their jets.

Dks01

MichelR Do you know much of how NORAD works?

taraf

Dks01 Do you know much of how NORAD works?

Dunno if he does…. You’re right that the F-35 is the default option for NORAD. But the reason is interoperability with American forces. That doesn’t mean a Canadian pilot is going to hop in an American jet, but it does mean that if an action requires response from both air forces their systems have to talk to each other for data sharing, identify friend/foe, etc..

With Sweden having joined NATO, I don’t actually know whether their systems can talk to the American ones. 3 years ago I would have said “probably not”. Today? A whole lot has changed, and it is possible that they’ve had avionics upgrades. Or it’s also possible that they had the ability all along.

That being said - yeah. We’re getting the F-35’s. It would be really bad if we backed out of a contract with the American aviation industry. We can choose not to sign the next one, but there is no way we’re cancelling the existing one.

Donoreo

taraf That being said - yeah. We’re getting the F-35’s. It would be really bad if we backed out of a contract with the American aviation industry. We can choose not to sign the next one, but there is no way we’re cancelling the existing one.

I agree, we will get what we have ordered, sometime maybe before the Eglinton LRT opens in Toronto

GrumpyCanadian

Donoreo Or by the time every Quebecer who wants one has a family doctor?

It really doesn’t sound like they will be in a position to deliver the Block 4, so what exactly are we getting, and how much of a discount is involved in not getting what we thought we would be? What if they can never deliver all of the expected Block 4 features? Will this end up being another expensive, defective pile that doesn’t deliver, like Bomarc/SAGE?

Dks01

taraf You’re right that the F-35 is the default option for NORAD. But the reason is interoperability with American forces.

This.

MichelR

Dks01 Do you know much of how NORAD works?

Yes. I’ve been following military aviation since the late ’70s. Long story short, It does not require flying the exact same planes. I’d go blablabla on this, but I have some fires to put out over here this morning.

MaynardKrebs

KingB71

I wish I has though of this one:
The FU-47
Trump being the 47th president.

MaynardKrebs

HELLFIRE

There’s tons of missiles that LockMart manufactures which we could buy in lieu of F-35’s 17 thru 64.
We need lots of long range air-ground for naval targets off all 3 of our coasts, and for land targets.

Imagine a Chinese/Russian flotilla in the Northwest Passage with this kind of capability
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-invasion-barges-taiwan.html
or with invasion hovercraft. How long do you figure it would take for them to whip up an airfield and SAM batteries at key points, to create FOBS and AD - just like they did in the South China Sea

Dks01

MichelR It doesn’t. Viz Canada’s CF-18’s and the US F-15/F22/F35. But for a number of years both air forces flew the F-101B/CF-101B VooDoo.

HELLFIRE

@Dks01 In the 1960’s through mid 80’s Canada had three different fighters.

You’re REALLY going to make me do a google-fu search and comparison of the budget and # of pilots we had then vs now? 🤣 🤣

@taraf and it is possible that they’ve had avionics upgrades.

https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2018/saab-provides-tactical-data-links-to-swedish-navy (Feb 13, 2018)

The Navy platforms will be upgraded with data links such as L16 and L22.This enables closer co-operation and communication with other nations at sea during missions.

https://www.globaldefenseaerospacepost.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=3035 (Sep 21, 2024)

The proposed sale will improve Sweden’s capability to meet current and future threats by modernizing its existing Link 16 capability to interoperate with U.S. forces and to exchange secure, jam-resistant tactical data via Link 16.

Mind you, it’s not just comms links and such, but procedures and operations. I suspect NATO and Sweden are MUCH closer than before.

@GrumpyCanadian What if they can never deliver all of the expected Block 4 features?

Ain’t that the million dollar question…. Overpromise And Underdeliver and all that jazz … 🙄 🙄

@MaynardKrebs We need lots of long range air-ground for naval targets off all 3 of our coasts, and for land targets.

… plus the RCN’s subs and those weapons.

… plus whatever’s on the Army’s wishlist.

… plus whatever else is on the RCAF’s wishlist.

… plus whatever else is on the RCN’s wishlist.

Again, all competing for the same defence budget. Nevermind if CND’s done any actual policy analysis WHAT other types of weapon(s) are needed to arm the F-35s.

Easy to armchair quarterback on the internet, I’d personally HATE to be in the hotseat right now…

My John Lawton 00000010bits

Regards

HELLFIRE

HELLFIRE Nevermind if CND’s done any actual policy analysis WHAT other types of weapon(s) are needed to arm the F-35s.

https://pbicanada.org/2023/01/24/how-much-will-canada-spend-on-bombs-missiles-and-bullets-for-its-new-f-35-warplanes/ – How much will Canada spend on bombs, missiles and bullets for its new F-35 warplanes? (Jan 24, 2023)

… In the case of the F-35A, the project acquisition cost estimate provides for the acquisition of an initial stock of gun ammunition and countermeasures (e.g., flares), as the existing stock of CF-18 gun ammunition and flares are incompatible with the F-35A. Over the life cycle of the replacement fleet, the acquisition of newer weapons will be considered and funded as separate projects. …

Article notes weapons-as-separate-line-items vs weapons-as-total-cost-of-the-package is misleading… but that’s kinda like pricing out a car AND cost of gas at current-day prices… which really doesn’t work too well.

…and my quick google-fu didn’t find much in the way of specifics of CND even spec’ing what weapon(s) they’d consider beyond the aforementioned AIM-9Xs and AIM-120s.

…FWIW.

Regards

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