F-35 vs. Gripen

MaynardKrebs · 2025-11-01T03:43:33+00:00

I thought I’d start an entirely new thread to discuss the F-35 versus the Gripen so as to not hijack the submarine thread where some of the stuff has been discussed. We had spirited discussions about Gripen vs. F-35 in the old DSLReports forums. The version of the F-35 Canada has contracted for is called the Block 4 model. It is in deep trouble right now. The F-35’s critical Block 4 upgrade package is now five years behind schedule, expected in 2031, and $6 billion over budget, according to a scathing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. The update includes over 75 major improvements like increased missile capacity and advanced electronic warfare. Facing these massive delays and cost overruns, the F-35 program now plans to reduce the scope of the vital Block 4 modernization. Why the F-35 Fighter Block 4 Upgrade Is Slipping The Pentagon’s modernization program for its flagship fifth-generation fighter, the F-35 Lightning II, is in trouble. The long-planned Block 4 upgrade, intended to equip the jet with new weapons, sensors, and computing power, is now running years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget. The Block 4 package is central to keeping the F-35 effective against emerging threats from China and Russia, whose advanced aircraft and integrated air defenses are closing the technological gap with the West. Without this program, the jet risks falling behind before the next war even starts. UNDERSTANDING THE BLOCK 4 UPGRADE In fighter jet terms, a “block” refers to a generation-wide package of hardware and software improvements. Block 4 is designed to deliver expanded weapons options, improved electronic warfare systems, and next-generation networking and sensor fusion—all aimed at maintaining air dominance well into the 2030s. The upgrade depends on the Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3) – a step that preceded the upgrade and outlines plans for installing a new computer in the plane, along with the software architecture that will power it and handle all the added capabilities that come with Block 4. Without TR-3, Block 4 simply cannot function. The original idea was that TR-3-equipped jets would have rolled off the production line in 2024, paving the way for a full modernization some two years later—but software integration issues have substantially slowed TR-3 deliveries. Originally, Block 4 promised more than 60 new capabilities for the jet—from the ability to fire longer-range air-to-air missiles to carrying new precision bombs internally. The upgrade would also include new radar systems and electronic-attack capabilities, as well as improvements to data sharing with other aircraft and network - much of which the Gripen E already has. Together, the improvements are designed to turn the F-35 into a networked combat hub that shares information and improves situational awareness, as well as a formidable stealth fighter - much of which the Gripen E already has - except the stealth bit. But if Canada is not a First-day-of-war combatant, which it is unlikely to be, then stealth is not as critical an issue for us as we are not going to be the ones beating back an adversaries air force In the first instance. Most of our effort is going to be done for sovereignty patrol on all our coasts, and possibly ground attack, Events in Ukraine show some of the futility of conventional ground attack aircraft of any type versus portable missile air defense systems, and much of the ground attack role has been taken over by long range missiles and a myriad of drones. More than likely, the bulk of our use will be maritime patrol and interdiction. THE DELAYS, COSTS, AND CAUSES According to the GAO, Block 4 costs have ballooned by more than $6 billion since the last estimate, bringing the total expected price tag to around $16.5 billion. Completion is now expected at least five years later than initially planned. First, there are the TR-3 delays. Hardware and software integration problems in Technology Refresh 3 have prevented the F-35’s onboard systems from running the new Block 4 applications. Until those computers are certified and fixed, the new jets cannot be delivered with full capability. There are worsened supply chain issues. that are contributing significantly more than previous delays. Then there’s the issue of power and cooling constraints. The additional electronics and weapons envisioned for the Block 4 upgrade require more power—and therefore more cooling. The current Pratt & Whitney F135 engine cannot fully support the new system without an upgrade program of its own, and that planned upgrade has been delayed until around 2031. The currently cut-backed version of Block 4 will include only a fraction of the original 66 capabilities, with the rest deferred for future increments of the upgrade. And this carries serious consequences. For F-35 operators, it means a growing capability gap. Without Block 4, the F-35 cannot integrate some of its most advanced new munitions and datalink systems that would allow this fifth-generation platform to counter next-generation Chinese and Russian defenses. Did I mention that Gripen E already has this operational and baked into its DNA? With every delay in the F-35, allied countries suffer setbacks to their operational plans, thereby complicating interoperability and increasing costs for training, sustainment, and logistics. I will fault Trudeau for not choosing the Gripen five years ago. By this point in time we would’ve had production happening in Canada, and our factory most likely would be contributing aircraft to Ukraine and other customers within a year or two of today. Having our own production line means that maintenance, repair, and overhaul could easily be done domestically. Canada has had a long history of both design development and productionOf indigenous aircraft, as well as production of fighter aircraft under license, Most notably, the F-86 Sabe and the F104 Starfighter. The Canadian produced Sabres and Starfighters were widely recognized as being better built than the ones produced in the United States.

taraf

KingB71 They’ll still need them even if the war’s over, I think. 🙂

MichelR

taraf I didn’t have time to look into it (busy week), but did see something about this early this week on the House of El podcast, and was wondering where she had gotten that information.

I thought we had only paid for 16 F-35s, but I guess 30 it is. So 15, because they spend half their time on the ground for maintenance. That’s why they’re stealth. Can’t see ’em if they’re not flyin’. 😃

Dks01

I have seen a lot of speculation expressed as fact in the past week. Time will tell.

MichelR

Dks01 It’s getting weirder.

Dks01

MichelR Indeed. 140 aircraft in a mixed fleet.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f-35-gripen-saab-lockheed-martin-canadian-armed-forces-9.7225549

HELLFIRE

Thanks for the updates, but… is the ink dry on anything? Genuine question…

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/canada-plans-fighter-fleet-surge-140 – Canada Plans Fleet Surge to 140+ Fighters as Low Cost Gripens Reduce Expenses

Echos the news of the proposed split fleet, of note is the following :

… This would reportedly be split between 70 F-35A fifth generation fighters, down from a currently planned fleet of 88, and over 70 Gripens. …

Regards

taraf

HELLFIRE Thanks for the updates, but… is the ink dry on anything? Genuine question…

No. Whole lot of speculation. But “reliable sources” ™ showing up as anonymous leaks.

With the upcoming CUSMA negotiations, I’m not surprised we’re playing our cards close to our chest. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the 70 F-35’s number is the concession we’re willing to make in exchange for stuff on the American side, and that our government is fully prepared to limit the order to the 16 we’ve already paid for and the 14 we’ve already put a down payment on. Our government is a lot better at negotiation than the current set of lunatics running the asylum down there, and they’re also not going to go into a negotiation like that without an ace or three in the pocket.

Donoreo

If the RCAF ended up with 140 fighters, we would have to reopen fighter squadron bases. We currently have 4 squadrons and 2 bases. We normally operate 18-24 planes per squadron, so at 70 of each, that could be 3 squadrons of each. That is also alot more admin personnel as well. Given the fact the Air Force only works 10-4, it could be more 🤣

Dks01

Donoreo If the RCAF ended up with 140 fighters, we would have to reopen fighter squadron bases

Bases might include Comox, Winnipeg, North Bay, Trenton and Goose Bay. There are advance bases at Yellowknife and Iqaluit.

HELLFIRE

I thought Canada still had overseas bases, but I guess I was wrong – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFB_Baden%E2%80%93Soellingen

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE Baden is long, long closed.

HELLFIRE

Looks like the Franco-German FCAS program is gone :

https://defence-blog.com/europes-110-billion-fighter-jet-project-is-officially-dead/

Germany and France have jointly decided to abandon the fighter jet component of the Future Combat Air System, known as FCAS, after years of industrial disputes between Airbus and Dassault Aviation proved impossible to resolve, according to Der Tagesspiegel. … The decision does not kill FCAS entirely: both governments say they intend to continue working on the Combat Cloud component of the program, a networked architecture designed to connect different weapons systems, platforms, and sensors into a unified operational picture. …

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/europes-fcas-fighter-was-meant-to-match-chinas-6th-gen-jets-france-and-germany-just-killed-it/

… Why is it that one could say déjà vu is that this is approximately the same path that the previous-generation Eurofighter program took back in 1985? Germany, the UK, Spain, and Italy decided to develop a multinational fighter jet, while France went its own way and developed its Rafale aircraft models. …

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/european-compete-f35-stealth-fighter-expand

Following confirmation of the collapse of the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter program, analysts have widely anticipated that this will further expands markets for the F-35 fifth generation fighter in Europe, both among the program’s partner countries and more broadly across the continent. … While multiple European states such as Germany and Spain had previously planned to hedge between local and U.S. fighter types, with Germany initially having firmly rejected any possible purchase of F-35s, the failings of European programs have led the American stealth fighter to increasingly emerge as the only option that is not decades behind the cutting edge. …

Not sure I entirely agree with the author’s positions in this article, but on a practical level it does make sense to keep SOME tangible form of leverage in your negotiations : https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/canada-doesnt-have-to-choose-buy-all-88-f-35s-and-add-the-jas-39-saab-gripen-fighters/

… Keep the full F-35 buy, and there is no cancellation for Washington to retaliate against, no blow to NORAD integration, no broken contract. … The math also flatters the approach, because the 72 uncommitted F-35s remain a live piece of leverage that Carney can hold in reserve during trade talks without having to actually walk away from them. …

FWIW.

Regards

KingB71

HELLFIRE read today that Airbus has been in exploratory talks with Saab about jointly developing a fighter jet and there’s talk of Dassault possibly building a next generation fighter as well.
Not sure what the issue that led to the cancellation of the FCAS was

HELLFIRE

KingB71 Not sure what the issue that led to the cancellation of the FCAS was

TL;DR : herding cats.

I’ll keep my ear to the ground for any (future) articles that provide a digestible version of things.

Regards

HELLFIRE

FWIW : https://defence-blog.com/u-s-navy-awards-154m-for-11-f-35s-bound-for-undisclosed-customer/ – U.S. Navy awards $154M for 11 F-35s bound for undisclosed customer

… The customer was identified only as a Foreign Military Sales customer, and the contract announcement did not name the country. Under the Foreign Military Sales system, foreign governments purchase American military equipment through the U.S. government as an intermediary, with the Navy’s Naval Air Systems Command at Patuxent River, Maryland, serving as the contracting activity that manages the transaction; the contracting structure means Lockheed Martin deals with the U.S. government as its customer even though the aircraft will ultimately fly for a foreign air force …

Regards

HELLFIRE

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/paying-more-for-less-americas-allies-are-discovering-the-f-35-stealth-fighters-real-price-tag/ – ‘Paying More for Less’: America’s Allies Are Discovering the F-35 Stealth Fighter’s Real Price Tag
https://www.rigsrevisionen.dk/nyheder/2026/jun/beretning_f-35

On Monday, Denmark’s National Audit Office (Rigsrevisionen) projected a €9.53 billion price tag for the 30-year lifecycle of the US-made stealth jet. The original estimate for the costs over the life of the program was €7.64 billion. …

Regards

Dks01

HELLFIRE Paying More for Less’: America’s Allies Are Discovering the F-35 Stealth Fighter’s Real Price Tag

And who is surprised? So much for Value for Money.

HELLFIRE

https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-most-expensive-weapon-in-u-s-history-is-fully-combat-ready-just-one-quarter-of-the-time/ – The Most Expensive Weapon in U.S. History Is Fully Combat-Ready Just One-Quarter of the Time

America’s F-35 — at a lifetime cost some put above $2 trillion, the priciest weapon ever built — was fully combat-ready just 25 percent of the time last year, a watchdog found: able to fly every mission it was designed for only one day in four, down from 67 percent in 2021.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108113 – full GAO report here, Jun 11, 2026.

Regards

MichelR

“Windows is updating. Please do not fly your plane.”

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