Kosmos is coming home soon

real_aurgathor · 2025-04-27T17:52:07+00:00

The Soviet Union had a malfunctioning space craft (Kosmos-482) in 1972 that instead of going to the Venus, stuck around Earth, and now it is expected to do an uncontrolled re-entry in early May, A notable thing about this craft is that it has a hardened heat shield designed to survive an entry into Venus’ atmosphere, so it’s not likely to burn up on re-entry as most satellites do. An unusual object is about to reenter Earth’s atmosphere. The heat-resistant Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 launched on March 31, 1972, bound for Venus. After a successful launch to a temporary orbit around Earth, a problem with a timer cut an engine burn prematurely. So the spacecraft was unable to leave our planet’s orbit. It’s been circling Earth for 53 years and will reenter the atmosphere around May 8 to 11, 2025. As we get closer to the date and continue to monitor its orbital height, we’ll be able to estimate a more precise reentry date. There is a small risk with the spacecraft reentry. Although the odds that it occurs over land or a populated area are small, the inconvenient detail with Kosmos 482 is that it was a probe similar to the Venera mission landers. That is, they were built to withstand acceleration and the high pressures and extreme heat of Venus. So most of the lander, even if not intact, may still reach our planet’s surface. https://earthsky.org/space/kosmos-482-soviet-spacecraft-to-fall-to-earth-may-2025/ Since it’s a rather sturdily built craft it’s likely to be easily visible while it’s going through the upper atmosphere, but a lot depends on its orientation.

Astyanax

It crashed into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta this morning at 2:24 AM EDT.

https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/soviet-spacecraft-kosmos-482-crashes-back-to-earth-disappearing-into-indian-ocean-after-53-years-in-orbit

Probably landed on top of flight MH370. 😉

telcodad

Astyanax It crashed into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta this morning at 2:24 AM EDT.

The last predicted times of 2:33 and 2:37 EDT were pretty good, then!

Astyanax

telcodad The last predicted times of 2:33 and 2:37 EDT were pretty good, then!

I wonder if the parachute deployed with the probe thinking “Yay! I finally made it to Venus! Wow what a long trip!” 😄

Somewhat-Reticent

Astyanax Sat-view shows ship(s) converging there ?

Astyanax

Somewhat-Reticent Sat-view shows ship(s) converging there ?

They’re trying to get the secret microfilm. It’s going to become an Ice Station Zebra standoff! 😄

telcodad

Final update on the ESA site:

Status 10 May 14:21 CEST

As the descent craft was not spotted over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass by our colleagues at Fraunhofer FHR , it is most likely that the reentry occurred on the track between 06:04 UTC and 07:32 UTC. The latest prediction diagrams have been updated accordingly but reflect the commonly used full prediction uncertainties where ESA’s Space Debris Office predicted that the reentry of the descent craft will have taken place at:

06:16 UTC (08:16 CEST) on 10 May 2025

The uncertainty in this prediction was +/- 0.36 hours. See further down for the latest prediction graphs.

We have not received so far any reports on visual direct observations of the final re-entry, or on any impacts on ground.

Somewhat-Reticent

Italian astronomers merged-slow-pics showed slowing.

telcodad

Soviet Spacecraft Cosmos 482 Location After Reentry Baffling Watchers
By Eric Mack, Senior Contributor, Forbes - May 10, 2025
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2025/05/10/soviet-spacecraft-cosmos-482-location-after-reentry-baffling-watchers/

…. Space agencies and other trackers use different models to estimate where and when Cosmos 482 might have re-entered the atmosphere, and without any direct observations or much other data, these “best guesses” are about all we have to go on about its final resting place. And these estimates place that spot either in the South Pacific, somewhere in western Europe, the Indian Ocean or in or offshore of western Australia.
:
Roscosmos, the Russian Space Agency reports that “the spacecraft entered the dense layers of the atmosphere at 9:24 Moscow time, 560 km west of Middle Andaman Island, and fell into the Indian Ocean west of Jakarta.”

Meanwhile, experienced orbit watcher Marco Langbroek places re-entry off the coast of Australia and US Space Force data puts it in the South Pacific.

This is how various organizations have their nominal reentry points for the Kosmos-482 located, each based on their own models:

Somewhat-Reticent

telcodad based on their own models

And not on actual tracking or sighting? Says more about their models.
Not a controlled descent, after all.
At least we’re not reading about a massive explosion and deaths.
( Though I wouldn’t ignore possible “national-security” disinformation. )

telcodad

Somewhat-Reticent At least we’re not reading about a massive explosion and deaths.

Yeah, as the final portion of its orbit appears to have been over Europe and down over India!

px_eliezer_

Astyanax “Yay! I finally made it to Venus! Wow what a long trip!”

V’ger.

Astyanax

telcodad Soviet Spacecraft Cosmos 482 Location After Reentry Baffling Watchers
By Eric Mack, Senior Contributor, Forbes - May 10, 2025

I have a hard time believing the reentry was as dramatic as that artist’s rendering in that Forbes article. It wasn’t even 3 ft in diameter which is about the size of a big truck wheel. It was about 1200 lbs though but still it being built to be so “tough” I wouldn’t think such a large contrail is going to form behind it. There would be something but not that dramatic. Usually some sort of outgassing of something from the entering object (ie meteor or asteroid) would contribute to such a plume I would think.

MacLeech

Astyanax It was about 1200 lbs though but still it being built to be so “tough” I wouldn’t think such a large contrail is going to form behind it. There would be something but not that dramatic.

The average “shooting star” is the size of a grain of sand that heats to incandescence. A truck tire sized hunk of dense metal would’ve been spectacular.

Somewhat-Reticent

Astyanax Probably landed on top of flight MH370.

That would be indeed serendipitous, and possibly fortuitous.
Meanwhile its location shares the mystery.

telcodad

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2025/05/10/soviet-spacecraft-cosmos-482-location-after-reentry-baffling-watchers/

(UPDATE, May 11: In addition to the below estimates from other agencies, the European Space Agency has updated this ground track with a new center of impact window (COIW) over the border of Iran and Turkmenistan. The COIW is the location where it’s expected an object will break up, not the precise spot where it will fall. There’s also still about a 45 minute margin of error around this particular COIW as of Saturday.)

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