Kosmos is coming home soon

real_aurgathor

The Soviet Union had a malfunctioning space craft (Kosmos-482) in 1972 that instead of going to the Venus, stuck around Earth, and now it is expected to do an uncontrolled re-entry in early May, A notable thing about this craft is that it has a hardened heat shield designed to survive an entry into Venus’ atmosphere, so it’s not likely to burn up on re-entry as most satellites do.

An unusual object is about to reenter Earth’s atmosphere. The heat-resistant Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 launched on March 31, 1972, bound for Venus. After a successful launch to a temporary orbit around Earth, a problem with a timer cut an engine burn prematurely. So the spacecraft was unable to leave our planet’s orbit. It’s been circling Earth for 53 years and will reenter the atmosphere around May 8 to 11, 2025.

As we get closer to the date and continue to monitor its orbital height, we’ll be able to estimate a more precise reentry date.

There is a small risk with the spacecraft reentry. Although the odds that it occurs over land or a populated area are small, the inconvenient detail with Kosmos 482 is that it was a probe similar to the Venera mission landers. That is, they were built to withstand acceleration and the high pressures and extreme heat of Venus. So most of the lander, even if not intact, may still reach our planet’s surface.

https://earthsky.org/space/kosmos-482-soviet-spacecraft-to-fall-to-earth-may-2025/

Since it’s a rather sturdily built craft it’s likely to be easily visible while it’s going through the upper atmosphere, but a lot depends on its orientation.

HELLFIRE

real_aurgathor Although the odds that it occurs over land or a populated area are small

Australian Outback? Is someone going to get a fine for littering?

/snark

Regards

telcodad

Oh OK, this map narrows it down a bit, at least we can rule out Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia. 😉

Failed Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 could crash to Earth this week — here’s where it might hit (map)
Where will the failed Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 land when it crashes back to Earth in the coming week? Most major cities are in the potential crash zone — but the odds of a direct strike are extremely slim.
By Brandon Specktor, Live Science - May 6, 2025
https://www.livescience.com/space/space-exploration/failed-soviet-spacecraft-kosmos-482-could-crash-to-earth-this-week-heres-where-it-might-hit-map

Experts won’t be able to narrow down the potential landing zone until it actually begins its descent through the atmosphere, which is currently predicted to happen on May 10th, give or take a couple days.

telcodad

Latest update on the re-entry of Kosmos-482:

From: https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/05/07/reentry-prediction-soviet-era-venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/

Status 08 May 09:00 CEST

ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of the descent craft will take place at:

07:12 UTC (09:12 CEST) on 10 May 2025 [3:12 AM EDT]

The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 13.67 hours.

See further down for the latest prediction graphs.

telcodad

Starting to narrow it down more:

Status 08 May 18:30 CEST

ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of the descent craft will take place at:

08:16 UTC (10:12 CEST) on 10 May 2025 [4:16 AM EDT]

The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 8.61 hours.

telcodad

Narrowing it down a bit more now:

Status 09 May 12:12 CEST

ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of the descent craft will take place at:

06:26 UTC (08:26 CEST) on 10 May 2025 [2:26 AM EDT]

The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 4.35 hours.

See further down for the latest prediction graphs.

Somewhat-Reticent

Any update on location?

telcodad

Somewhat-Reticent Any update on location?

Not that I’ve seen yet, may be able to narrow it down once the uncertainly is down to +/- 1 hour?

Somewhat-Reticent

Heavens-above link currently shows Cosmos 482 position & path.

telcodad

Somewhat-Reticent Heavens-above [site] currently shows Cosmos 482 position & path.

Thanks!

WebinTheWorld

Russia should be held to account for any damages or injury this cause.

telcodad

Somewhat-Reticent Heavens-above link currently shows Cosmos 482 position & path.

I found the plot at this link showed the orbit better: https://heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?satid=6073&lat=0&lng=0&loc=Unspecified&alt=0&tz=UCT

telcodad

Latest update:

Status 09 May 19:15 CEST

ESA’s Space Debris Office currently predicts that the reentry of the descent craft will take place at:

06:37 UTC (08:37 CEST) on 10 May 2025 [2:37 AM EDT]

The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 3.28 hours.

Somewhat-Reticent

Who knows - it could return home. Path drifts westward.
Would out-of-control tumbling suggest bounce or scatter potential ?

telcodad

This site currently predicts that KOSMOS-482 will reenter at 6:33 UTC [2:33 AM EDT] +/- 3.2 Hours

COSMOS 482 DESCENT CRAFT, 6073
https://www.satcat.com/sats/6073

Get ready to put on those hard hats and hunker down soon! 🙂

telcodad

The ESA says “at the current predicted time of reentry, the capsule would be located approximately 10 km over the red marker, labelled COIW (centre of impact window)” placing reentry somewhere over western Australia:

Somewhat-Reticent

telcodad I suspect it’s getting popular: auto-updates slowing.
and
meanwhile, youtube has lots of “Live: Cosmos 482 tracking”

telcodad

Is it down now? Latest ESA updates:

Status 10 May 08:35 CEST

The descent craft was seen by radar systems over Germany at approximately 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC, corresponding to 06:30 CEST and 08:04 CEST, respectively. There is no further update on the estimated reentry window as we are now roughly in the centre, corresponding to the red dot labeled COIW (centre of impact window) in the ground track chart below.

Status 10 May 09:56 CEST

As the descent craft was not spotted by radar over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass, it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.

telcodad

I guess so:

Soviet Kosmos 482 spacecraft crashes into an unknown site on Earth
The craft was last detected over Germany and is believed to have completed an uncontrolled re-entry after a botched mission to Venus left it orbiting Earth for more than fifty years.
By David Ewalt, NBC News - May 10, 2025, 5:07 AM EDT
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/soviet-kosmos-482-spacecraft-crashes-earth-rcna205579

A Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 on a failed mission to Venus is believed to have crashed back onto Earth early on Saturday morning.

The European Space Agency, which was monitoring the craft’s uncontrolled descent, said it was last spotted by radar over Germany. At at the time of its expected crash, radars could no longer detect the Kosmos 482, concluding that “it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.”

No injuries or damage have been reported.