crucialcolin
FTTP from one of the legacy telcos (ex-Bell’s like Verizon and at&t, ex-GTE fragments (Verizon/FTR), regional independents i.e Shentel GloFiber) or legacy MSOs (Comcast EPON, Cox XGPON, Charter XGPON) is a totally different animal than the new regional upstarts with no industry roots.
The big telecom providers, for all the hate they get, have the following things the smaller players will always lack to some degree:
- Formal engineering discipline, to include quality standards (yes, really, even if it doesn’t feel like it all the time)
- Significant peering relationships/backbones crossing state lines
- Enough scale to drive down equipment cost, improve consistency
- Diverse customer base from residential up to enterprise to maintain revenue even in hard times
- Staying power
I’ve watched local upstarts completely fall over - over promise, under deliver. Only ONE has succeeded, if only because they have chosen to build their own FTTP in an extremely wealthy area that rewards local roots and quality hometown service that happens to be adjacent enough to the Ashburn internet nexus that bandwidth is cheap to source. The ones that have depended on either the government for subsidy, or another telco big for distribution infrastructure (cough a VDSL2 CLEC trying to run on decrepit VZ copper) have failed, either outright or by being vapor.
I know there are great upstarts that work out, like GoNetSpeed, but they are getting gobbled up.
Telecom is naturally fit for vertical and horizontal integration. Vail was right - the chaos of thousands of providers is a waste of human energy. Today I am watching YET ANOTHER provider dig up the main street by my condo for yet another commercial focused fiber loop. The street already has 8+ carriers not including the local ILEC and MSO on it serving the ring of office buildings and datacenters nearby. This is insanity. Digging in the RoW will be near impossible. Verizon itself has 3 redundant plants in the area that I did not count in the count of 8 - Ex-Bell Atlantic ILEC fiber, ex-MCI fiber, and ex-GTE fiber.
I believe Comcast and Charter will eventually consolidate. It’s fate.