Just hit a global tipping ·

real_aurgathor

Climate change related doom and gloom aside, booming solar, wind and other green energy generation hit a global tipping point for capacity added and for price.

Last year, 74% of the growth in electricity generated worldwide was from wind, solar and other green sources, according to the U.N.’s multiagency report, called Seizing the Moment of Opportunity. It found that 92.5% of all new electricity capacity added to the grid worldwide in that time period came from renewables.

The three cheapest electricity sources globally last year were onshore wind, solar panels and new hydropower, according to an energy cost report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Solar power now is 41% cheaper and wind power is 53% cheaper globally than the lowest-cost fossil fuel, the reports said.

AP piece: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-solar-wind-power-fossil-fuels-6aca4846e594ea8405f91edda39a03ad

That 92.5% for new capacity is truly an astonishing number!! 😲
Although it shall be noted that in spite of its decreasing share, fossil fuels still continue to dominate energy generation.

UN report: https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/un-energy-transition-report_2025.pdf

Some quotes from the above report:

At the national level, solar and wind power became cost-competitive with fossil fuels without financial support in many countries between 2010 and 2022. By 2022, most major markets had achieved cost parity, with most of the newly commissioned projects delivering electricity at lower costs than fossil fuel-based alternatives

When new power capacity is under consideration today, solar PV and onshore wind not only offer the cheapest option, but also the fastest. On average, project lead times (planning, development, and construction) for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind take one to three years, whereas coal- and gas-fired power plants can take up to five years or more, and 10–15 years for nuclear power plants.

In particular, solar power is surging worldwide, with 99 countries doubling the amount of electricity generation from solar energy between 2020 and 2024.

OzarkEdge

Solar energy is booming in some countries…

real_aurgathor

OzarkEdge

It’s booming in quite a few countries partly because it’s the simplest and quickest to deploy since the important parts (PV panels and inverters) are widely available and much cheaper than they were just a few years ago.

And it’s easy to add some PR like below:

robxr4ti

real_aurgathor so they account for a large amount of new adds. Does that mean that their capacity for production equals that of other methods had they actually been implemented? One can write a story to make anything look like a good thing. Personally I think the reliance on solar is causing us to fall behind on needed net adds to the grid.

egeezer

robxr4ti One can write a story to make anything look like a good thing.

That approach is not limited to renewables.

Personally I think the reliance on solar is causing us to fall behind on needed net adds to the grid.

AEP is telling us that their issue is with grid capacity, not production limitations. They say the data centers being installed and proposed are reaching grid limitations.

real_aurgathor

robxr4ti Personally I think the reliance on solar is causing us to fall behind on needed net adds to the grid.

You can free to think whatever you want, but with everything taken into account, solar is usually the best option, and the current trend accurately reflects that.

Splitpair

robxr4ti One can write a story to make anything look like a good thing. Personally I think the reliance on solar is causing us to fall behind on needed net adds to the grid.

Solar interconnection alone is not considered a add to a grid as it is considered a unreliable source of energy, furthermore, most if not all grid managers are now issuing monetary penalties against solar farms which under perform their agreed to generation as described in the interconnect contract, this has forced a number of non-utility PV farms to pull out of grid sales and move into community generation paying the grid owner for transport only.

Add to that the new NERC interconnect rules now require solar to be paired BESS which automatically derate’s the nameplate capacity of the farm or install peakers co-located with the farm equal to the nameplate capacity, which can prevent derating the farm in some case’s.

NERC also changed their regulations forcing all forms of generation over a certain *capacity to be regulated by NERC even if they chose not to join NERC, eliminating a loophole used by some alternate forms of generation to avoid compliance with NERC regulations and reporting.

I believe that amount is 20 MVA but would have to look it up again to be sure.

Plus if life for PV farms wasn’t complicated enough some less than friendly PV states have greatly reduced almost to the point of zero the amount utilities are required to pay solar system owners for power sold back to the grid, California was one of the first to do such and it wrecked the solar industry in that state causing massive layoffs and numerous bankruptcies.

robxr4ti

real_aurgathor what is the “everything” you are taking into account? Are we keeping up with the new demands on the grid by relying on the addition of solar? Also keep in mind that there are only so many parking lots you can put these things in.

Splitpair

robxr4ti Are we keeping up with the new demands on the grid by relying on the addition of solar? Also keep in mind that there are only so many parking lots you can put these things in.

Truth be told as I stated earlier solar is not even coming close to meeting grid demands, yet.

However the best part of the report was this false uninformed about the industry comment.

“On average, project lead times (planning, development, and construction) for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind take one to three years”

I cannot speak for wind, but for solar PD&C is more like a decade or two, building a utility grade PV farm requires all kinds of environmental studies, public hearings and Public Service Commission approvals.

It took FP&L a little just over three years just to get the permits required to build a 32 mile 115 kV transmission line on ROW they already owned from a new substation they built at South Bay south on 27 to interconnect a new PV farm they are planning to build 32 miles south of South Bay and just west of 27, they own the land but the farm hasn’t been built yet, because they wanted to make sure they where able to have the interconnect in place before plowing any money into building the farm.

So when it is all said and done it will have been 12 years from drawing board to in-service.

Now FP&L is no slacker when it comes to solar, that new transmission substation at South Bay is interconnected by a two circuit 125 kV transmission line heading west that pass’s just north of where I live to another huge PV farm they have south of La Belle just east of 29.

It also has a tap interconnect from another farm they own north of 80 at Babcock Ranch which is described as “Babcock Ranch is recognized as America’s first solar-powered town. It features an 870-acre solar array that provides electricity to the community and a backup battery system.”

The reason FP&L is interconnecting all of their solar farms is to stabilize their solar transmission grid, making it simpler to interconnect it to their conventional transmission grid.

That is some serious money being spent, but is the only way to properly utilize solar power on a large scale utility basis and they are working on taking it statewide throughout their service area.

None the less, whoever wrote that article is totally clueless about utility grade solar and what it takes to make it actually work and the time and investments required to get it all completed.

digitalfutur

Solar + Storage, is the most cost-effective way to add capacity, and unsurprisingly is leading the way for doing so in America.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64586

30 years from now, we’ll look back on how AI farms’ electrical needs permanently disrupted incremental fossil fuel capacity adds, leading to its continued decline in share of capacity generation. And at the same time, proved that septuagenarian public policies were a brief distraction that got trumped by logic, and by cost-benefit analyses.

Splitpair

digitalfutur 30 years from now, we’ll look back on how AI farms’ electrical needs permanently disrupted incremental fossil fuel capacity adds, leading to its continued decline in share of capacity generation. And at the same time, proved that septuagenarian public policies were a brief distraction that got trumped by logic, and by cost-benefit analyses.

30 years form now we will be looking at massive pile of hazardous waste, little of which can be recycled and wonder how the heck could anyone eff it all up this badly.

Meanwhile NextEra a solar proponent and FP&L parent company has announced this.

The company continues to work toward building new natural gas generation, and maintains an interest in nuclear energy, with a full development team dedicated to small modular reactors, Ketchum said. It also continues to explore reopening the Duane Arnold nuclear power plant in Iowa, but the company has not yet announced a final decision regarding its fate.

At first they where all in on solar, then woke up to the reality of what solar and storage would cost long term and are pivoting back more conventional sources of power generation.

For a multi-billion dollar company that speaks volumes about the actual future of solar and all the lies solar proponents have been pushing.

OzarkEdge

egeezer AEP is telling us that their issue is with grid capacity, not production limitations. They say the data centers being installed and proposed are reaching grid limitations.

Yep.

The Grain Belt Express grid expansion just had a federal loan of $4.9 billion canceled (the Tiger Connector shown reaches into Callaway County to the only nuclear power plant in MO).

Everyone seems to agree that we need more grid and more power generation connected to it from all sources, green and otherwise, but can’t agree on who will finance it how and when and who gets to profit from it… financially and politically.

Splitpair

OzarkEdge but can’t agree on who will finance it how and financially and politically.

The interstate transmission grid should be paid for by the utilities who wish to build it and pass that cost down to their customers.

While interstate grids are vital to national security taxpayers should be burdened with the costs of building them, the same applied to alternative sources like solar where the taxpayer funded “incentives” have now been eliminated.

If a new technology cannot support itself on it’s own, then it should fail for not being practical.

OzarkEdge

Splitpair If a new technology cannot support itself on it’s own, then it should fail for not being practical.

I’m familiar with that argument (a hard one to make when discussing critically needed improvements to a multi-national power grid)… it’s an old one that simply ignores various realities and the inherent value of the common good.

As for the Grain Belt Express project, that grid expansion will connect new wind farm power generation locations to markets that need it and will transport power from any and all sources… what a power grid does. The cancellation of the federal loan in these times is more about picking/leveraging winners and losers and scoring political points (it’s a green energy scam, oh my!… the wind doesn’t blow all of the time, on my!… silly nonsense). It and others will get built with private financing, if necessary, that will cost the consumer more and earn the taxpayer nothing in financing.

digitalfutur

Splitpair Really? CEO Ketchum has stated the exact opposite of what you posted without citing sources. He’s talking big picture here, not one-offs that are the exception, not the rule. Because that’s what a smart CEO gets paid to do.

https://www.politico.com/video/2025/06/10/full-interview-with-john-ketchum-politico-energy-summit-1644795

3:43 If we want to build a new gas-fired generation facility…we can’t get it online until 2032. He stated that the price of a turbine has gone up 3 fold in the last 24 month due to strong demand, a shortage of specialized skilled labor, and that the steel/aluminum tariffs create a lot of uncertainty on how to price the contract.

5:45 "Nuclear in much further off…first of a kind generation [initial deployment] not until 2035.

8:29 "Renewables play an essential role. We’re projecting 450 GW of demand between now and 2030, only 75 GW of that 450…can be satisfied by gas. That leaves 375 GW that have to be satisfied by something. If it’s not Renewables, what is it gonna be. We’re gonna be short power in this country. We cannot afford to do that. If we do that. we will lose the AI race…

19:25 “Building another gas plant is not the best solution for my customer, the best solution for my customer is to build more solar and more battery storage because it’s a third of the cost”…

real_aurgathor

Splitpair

Splitpair The interstate transmission grid should be paid for by the utilities who wish to build it and pass that cost down to their customers.

And at the end it *is* paid by the customers.

real_aurgathor

Splitpair 30 years form now we will be looking at massive pile of hazardous waste, little of which can be recycled and wonder how the heck could anyone eff it all up this badly.

Maybe they can be buried under coal ash for safekeeping. 😉

Of which the current production is about 70 million tons per year.

Splitpair Meanwhile NextEra a solar proponent and FP&L parent company has announced this.

Link to the announcement please.

real_aurgathor

Splitpair

Splitpair I cannot speak for wind, but for solar PD&C is more like a decade or two, building a utility grade PV farm requires all kinds of environmental studies, public hearings and Public Service Commission approvals.

Utter rubbish and FUD.

Of the usual sources, solar has the least impact on the environment, and most of that impact is just shade, which may not be such a bad thing in many places. Furthermore, many solar plants are located in areas with land that may not have much other use, and have relatively little flora and fauna, But sometimes they have unique critters like a desert tortoise.

For example, for the Topaz solar plant in CA the property was purchased in 2009 and construction started in 2011.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topaz_Solar_Farm

In general, solar plants’ EIS is faster than other power plant’s EIS.

On average, environmental impact statements for the 28 projects took around 2.5 years—over 2 years less than the average time (4.5 years) for all environmental impact statements across all federal agencies. Our working paper shows that two-thirds of the projects completed the formal NEPA review process within 2 years (light blue bars)—a deadline adopted in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023.

https://www.resources.org/common-resources/speeding-up-solar-projects-siting-review-under-the-national-environmental-policy-act/

real_aurgathor

robxr4ti what is the “everything” you are taking into account?

They are listed and discussed in great details in the UN pdf I linked.

robxr4ti Also keep in mind that there are only so many parking lots you can put these things in.

To supply the entire US current electricity demand with solar panels, it would require roughly 21,250 square miles of land. This is equivalent to a square with sides of approximately 145 miles. This represents about 0.6% of the total US land area. Approximately one-third of the continental United States can be classified as desert or semi-desert.

MacLeech

real_aurgathor For example, for the Topaz solar plant in CA the property was purchased in 2009 and construction started in 2011.

The land was purchased in 2009 from a failed solar project by Ausra building the Carrizo Energy Solar Farm started in 2007. Another chunk of the land used was from the old ARCO solar plant started in 1983 and shut down in 1994.
https://clui.org/ludb/site/topaz-solar-farm
https://clui.org/ludb/site/original-carrizo-solar-power-plant-site

Even with the previous history of solar plants built in the area, DoE wanted a number of improvements along with PG&E to support the Topaz solar plant
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/01/f58/EIS-0458-DEIS-Summary-2011.pdf

It seemed quick to develop because it was built on the bodies of old solar plants on the same properties so many of the studies, approvals, and zoning changes usually needed had been done previously.