Texas Tragedy

Sparkchaser · 2025-07-06T20:46:51+00:00

Been following this for a couple of days. It’s unbelievable. At least 70 dead in central Texas flash floods, with over 2 dozen missing. Many of the victims were children at a summer camp. No one expected the amount of rain that fell. The Guadalupe River rose about 26 feet in 45 minutes. More rain is expected. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-hill-country-severe-floods/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/06/texas-floods-search-missing-camp-mystic-girls-live-news-updates

px_eliezer_

A bitter irony, but at least it will be coming on board this year, is the new satellite cellular service from Starlink.

(Limited Beta in a few weeks, full services later on).

https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/t-mobiles-starlink-phone-service-is-launching-july-23-but-everyone-can-sign-up-for-the-free-beta-right-now/
https://www.t-mobile.com/coverage/satellite-phone-service

This will be of BIG help in rural areas without regular cellular service.

px_eliezer_

Kerr County officials asked the State of Texas for help with their flood warning system, multiple times over several years, but they were brushed off each time.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/investigations/article/kerr-county-texas-warning-system-upgrade-costs-20603296.php

Sparkchaser

px_eliezer_ A bitter irony, but at least it will be coming on board this year, is the new satellite cellular service from Starlink.

Weather radio exist now. I believe one camp was listening and evacuated.

An unedited timeline provided by the NWS is below.
The National Water Center Flood Hazard Outlook issued on Thursday July 3rd morning indicated an expansion of flash flood potential to include Kerrville, TX and surrounding areas.

A Flood Watch was issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio at 1:18PM CT on Thursday, in effect through Friday morning.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions for the excessive rainfall event as early as 6:10PM CDT Thursday indicating the potential for Flash Flooding.

The National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion (AHD) #144 at issued 6:22 PM CDT on 7/3/2025 messaged locally considerable flood wording for areas north and west of San Antonio, including the city of Kerrville.

The first Flash Flood Warning for the event was issued at 11:41 PM CDT Thursday for Bandera County.

At 1:14 AM CDT Friday: Flash Flood Warning with a considerable tag was issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties. Flash Flood Warnings with the Impact-Based Warning tags “Considerable” or “Catastrophic” denote high-damage threats and will automatically trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) on enabled mobile devices, ensuring only the most life-threatening flash flood events prompt urgent public notifications. All alerts are also sent out over NOAA Weather Radio.

First reports from Kerr County Sheriffs Office of flooding at low water crossings had 201 minutes of lead time (4:35 AM CDT).

Flash Flood Warning was upgraded to a Flash Flood Emergency for South-central Kerr County, Including Hunt, as early as 4:03 AM Friday.

The 5:00 AM CT July 4th National Water Center Area Hydrologic Discussion #146 included concern for widespread considerable flooding through the day.

The Flood Hazard Outlook was also upgraded to considerable and catastrophic.

Flash Flood Emergency issued for the Guadalupe River at 5:34 AM CDT.

HFB1217

The Houston Times article was informative and listed the actions not taken by “the powers that be” were negligent and deplorable.
Mercy and Kindness for and to the families of the lost and injured

egeezer

Sparkchaser
Thanks for the timeline, it seems to coincide with another report I read yesterday.

Some things come to mind.
Cell phone coverage seems to be spotty in that area.

I wasn’t able to find weather radio signal maps for the area, but being HF above 2 meters, that too could have been spotty unless the receiver had a tower mounted antenna. For group camps and facilities, this could be worth consideration along with emergency procedures and responses.

There are people who either turn off or silence alarms because they don’t want to be awakened just to hear a warning of an event that didn’t end up hitting their place directly.

Unfortunately the same people who call erring on the side of caution ‘crying wolf’ will be the same ones who complain that the notifications weren’t urgent or timely enough.

If luck prevails there will be an objective assessment, review and updating of risk management, notification, response and mitigation plans, products and procedures.

HFB1217

Flood plains while attractive and gives you wide open spaces should remain a non-buildable and not occupied area, After all the name should be self evident and give warning enough as to how it was created and the propensity for catastrophic dangerously high water flooding

Just like a Jezebel its Pretty and Alluring but it comes with Dangerous Destructive Consequences

Sparkchaser

egeezer wasn’t able to find weather radio signal maps for the area, but being HF above 2 meters, that too could have been spotty unless the receiver had a tower mounted antenna.

Excellent point. I thought about that after I posted. As an former ham and TV antenna guy I should have thought of that. I’m use to city and burbs. My wife heard of one camp that said they were monitoring NOAA but I can’t find it.

HFB1217

Texas inspectors approved Camp Mystic’s disaster plan 2 days before deadly flood, records show

HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children. …

https://apnews.com/article/camp-mystic-floods-state-inspection-ef17d51dc7868fa9cc5c3076c31ed98a?user_email=fa95727a3ab054fe62989408256dc7cfa5566382052bee19faee3d95d6cb0afd&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Jul08_2025_08:09PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

Charlotte Lauten, 19, spent nine summers at Camp Mystic, mostly recently in 2023. She said she didn’t recall ever receiving instructions as a camper on what to do in the case of a weather emergency.
“I do know that the counselors go through orientation training for a week before camp starts,” she said. “They do brief them on all those types of things.”
The uncertainty about what happened at Mystic comes as local officials have repeatedly dodged questions about who was monitoring the weather and what measures were taken ahead of the flooding.

HFB1217

More than 160 people are still missing after deadly Texas floods, governor says

https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-victims-camp-mystic-death-toll-ea38edadc7e965fb2c76c0ec46245a82?user_email=fa95727a3ab054fe62989408256dc7cfa5566382052bee19faee3d95d6cb0afd&utm_medium=APNews_Alerts&utm_source=Sailthru_AP&utm_campaign=NewsAlert_Jul08_2025_04:54PM&utm_term=AP%20News%20Alerts

More than 160 people are still believed to be missing in Texas days after flash floods killed over 100 people during the July Fourth weekend, the state’s governor said Tuesday.

The huge jump in the number unaccounted for — roughly three times higher than previously said — came after authorities set up a hotline for families to call.

Those reported missing are in Kerr County, where most of the victims have been recovered so far, Gov. Greg Abbott said. Many were likely visiting or staying in the state’s Hill Country during the holiday but did not register at a camp or hotel, he said during a news conference.

https://apnews.com/video/timelapse-video-shows-water-from-llano-river-in-texas-rising-within-minutes-and-overflowing-on-roadway-805bd62b676e461f8f36bde770645c11

px_eliezer_

Trump aides have ties to firms that could benefit from privatizing weather forecasts

Full story here:
https://www.timesunion.com/business/article/trump-appointees-have-ties-to-companies-that-20762719.php

Dks01

HFB1217 WTF? Staff training for weather emergencies is SOP here.

egeezer

Astyanax
The NWS is one component of risk, emergency and disaster management planning, mitigation and response. An objective comprehensive review and update of a plan should include all components and stakeholders.

real_aurgathor

HFB1217

HFB1217 Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp,

The obvious issue here is that having a plan does diddly squat when it’s not executed.

HFB1217 local officials have repeatedly dodged questions about who was monitoring the weather and what measures were taken ahead of the flooding.

I already mentioned at the beginning that emergency management failed exceedingly badly, and this seems to support that theory. The camps were not notified, and the aforementioned “Camp Mystic’s emergency planning” probably relied heavily on a timely notification from authorities – which most likely never came.

Of course the camp management is also partly to blame because they should have known about the flood warnings that were issued much earlier. As a matter of fact, one nearby camp did evacuate based on the warnings that came a day before.

dave

px_eliezer_ Trump aides have ties to firms that could benefit from privatizing weather forecasts

I’m shocked, shocked I tell you ….

px_eliezer_

real_aurgathor

Kickoff meeting for Kerr County warning system project had been planned for mid-July

A Kerrville-area river authority executed a contract last month for a flood warning system that would have been used to help with emergency response, local government officials said in response to a request by ABC News.

The contract was for “a centralized dashboard to support local flood monitoring and emergency response,” which would allow emergency managers to view real-time streamflow and rainfall data all on one platform, according to local officials. The system would not issue public alerts, the officials noted, but would instead serve as “a decision-support resource intended to complement existing infrastructure.”

https://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-flood-kickoff-meeting-kerr-county-warning-system/story?id=123622025

Of interest from the Kerr County Sheriff:

The FAA TFR (Temporary Flight Restriction) will remain in place through July 13 over the search-and-rescue operations along the Guadalupe River, from Hunt to Canyon Lake. Drones flown by media and individuals has interfered with search operations. One Blackhawk helicopter conducting search operations and carrying City of Kerrville administrative officials struck a drone and had to be grounded, removing a valuable asset from the effort.

https://kerrcountytx.gov/#gsc.tab=0

As well.

“Disasters are a human choice”: Texas counties have little power to stop building in flood-prone areas
Nearly 1.3 million Texas homes are similarly situated in parts of the state susceptible to dangerous floodwaters, according to a state estimate. A quarter of the state’s land carries some degree of severe flood risk, leaving an estimated 5 million Texans in possible jeopardy.

While cities can largely decide what is built within their limits, counties have no jurisdiction to implement comprehensive zoning rules that could limit people from living close to the water’s edge.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/09/texas-floods-growth-kerr-county-camp-mystic/

The camp is located in the unincorporated part of Kerr County, NOT within the city limits of the city of Kerrville, so (as above) it’s literally the wild west.

egeezer

px_eliezer_
Insurance rates will likely be reflected in the amount of payouts and actuarially determined future risks.

urbanriot

Dks01 Some suggestion that recent cuts to NOAA contributed to the disaster.

I know there’s an urge for the usual suspects to invoke political issues but there are plenty of meteorologists that have given other reasons for people ignoring the issue.

A flood “watch” notification was issued at 1:18 PM the day before. You can google screenshots of meteorologists providing these alerts. For the evening news they reiterated the flash flood “watch” notification. At around 1 AM they issued a flash flood “warning”. Channel 11 Houston is one of those stations.

NOAA also issued the information that led to these news reports. NOAA did its job.

Quite frankly if you live in an area that’s deemed “Flash Flood Alley” you should be paying attention to the monitoring outlets that issue a watch notification.

It was on the television, it was on the radio, it was reported on the internet, and it was reported on the weather alert radio systems that the public has access to.

These deaths were preventable.

OzarkEdge

I thought this PBS News Hour interview of a MyRadar.com meteorologist (see minute 8:30) offered some insight into the storm’s genisis.

Dks01

urbanriot So we blame the victims.

ugly95

Dks01 So we blame the victims.

It’s just another form of the “people have lost faith in the experts” trope that contrarians podcasters have been pushing really hard.

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