BTW - The infamous “city killer” asteroid “2024 YR4” that was once thought to threaten Earth in 2032, now looks like it could hit the Moon instead, still with some major consequences:
‘City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with ‘bullet-like’ meteors if it hits the moon in 2032
There is currently a 4.3% chance that the giant space rock 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in seven years. If this does happen, debris from the nuclear bomb-like impact could trigger a “spectacular” meteor shower that will endanger Earth-orbiting satellites.
By Harry Baker, Live Science - June 26, 2025
https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-could-shower-earth-with-bullet-like-meteors-if-it-hits-the-moon-in-2032
New simulations reveal that the infamous “city killer” asteroid 2024 YR4 could shower Earth with “bullet-like” debris if it hits the moon in seven years’ time, potentially triggering an eye-catching meteor shower — and endangering the satellites that orbit our planet.
2024 YR4 is a potentially hazardous asteroid measuring roughly 200 feet (60 meters) across, making it large enough to wipe out a large urban area if it were to hit Earth head-on. It was first discovered in December 2024 but made headlines earlier this year when scientists first predicted that there was a chance it could smash into Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The odds of a collision peaked at 3.1% in February, which was enough to prompt NASA to study it extensively. However, subsequent analysis revealed there is zero chance of it impacting our planet: https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/thats-zero-folks-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-no-longer-a-hazard
But in April, researchers realized that, while Earth is no longer in the firing line, the space rock could still hit the moon. The odds of such a collision have grown slowly but steadily, and most recently jumped to 4.3% earlier this month. Experts will likely know the final likelihood by 2028, when the asteroid will make its next close approach to our planet. …