A slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season

telcodad · 2025-06-11T16:39:59+00:00

Tropical activity has been staying well away from the Eastern U.S.,, as so far all storms have developed in the eastern Pacific. Saharan dust and wind shear have been suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic, which is still awaiting its first named tropical storm of the season. According to AccuWeather, it is likely to remain quiet through the end of June: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hazy-sky-to-persist-as-canadian-wildfire-smoke-and-saharan-dust-invade-us/1781776 Sluggish start to Atlantic hurricane season By Rachel Tucker, WFLA Forida - June 10, 2025 https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/sluggish-start-to-atlantic-hurricane-season-tracking-the-tropics/ The tropics remain quiet as we enter the second week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No new tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

InternetJeff

Welp, the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) is officially over today!

Let’s review the bidding on the accuracy of the predictions.

Atlantic Hurricanes Predicted: 6-10
Probability of a hurricane making landfall on the US Gulf Coast: 48%

Actual Hurricanes: 5
Number of actual storms that made landfall on the US as a hurricane: Zero.

A high error rate that is not very good. I’m not even going to get into the quality of the “spaghetti” tracking models.

Astyanax

InternetJeff Let’s review the bidding on the accuracy of the predictions.

I was going to say something about this but figured I was just going to get the usual Linus/Great Pumpkin doom response regarding next year (which we’ll probably get anyway).

They could at least have a semblance of acknowledgement by saying that it was a good year this year and glad nothing happened and hopefully we repeat it next year but they don’t want to be complacent or unprepared. That would give them a helluva lot more credibility back and not be regarded as being nothing but Chicken Littles just trying to cover their behinds all the time. But no. All we get is deafening silence; as if they’re all sitting in their cubicles sulking about it as if it were a “bad year”.

NOAA’s official prediction for this year was their usual. Probably will be virtually copied and pasted for next year also give or take a storm or two.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season

px_eliezer_

InternetJeff Welp, the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) is officially over today!

It’s not midnight yet! 😃

InternetJeff

px_eliezer_ It’s not midnight yet! 😃

Where? If we to by GMT, there’s about 58 minutes to go at the time of this post.

Maybe a few storms can sneak up at the last minute 😁

Edit: There are rare exceptions: Hurricane Alice reached hurricane status in late December 1954.

Astyanax

px_eliezer_ It’s not midnight yet! 😃

I hope one actually does develop before midnight ET so we can really show how off their predictions are since nothing is supposed to develop “during the next 7 days”.

Dks01

Astyanax No, the dominant steering air mass was the heat bubble over the North Pacific which steered the jet stream and storms away from the Atlantic coast.

broknsymetry

Dks01 No, the dominant steering air mass was the heat bubble over the North Pacific which steered the jet stream and storms away from the Atlantic coast.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. It was our Super Secret Quantum Hurricane Shield that performed perfectly as planned.

Astyanax

InternetJeff I remember we went into Greek letters in December one year but I don’t remember which.

Well Ron at least heralded the end of hurricane season a few days ago:

https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/no-florida-hurricane-landfalls-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/

digitalfutur

InternetJeff When complete data instead of a singular instance is provided, the accuracy conclusion changes. For both the USA overall and the Gulf Coast states, accuracy rate was 82% (9 of 11 seasons), an error rate that is very good.

Source: Colorado State University seasonal hurricane outlooks and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Heat84

Astyanax I remember we went into Greek letters in December one year but I don’t remember which.

2004 or 2005.

Heat84

Here’s the final stats for the 2025 hurricane season. CSU is Colorado State University and the first 2 columns are predictions:

I’m shocked that the stats are in the neighborhood of average. It felt like a very below average season, but it was just very below average for Florida impacts. It was the first time in 10 years we had no hurricanes here.

Beachie

Heat84 2004 or 2005.

Greek letters were used in 2005 (26 named storms) and in 2020 (30 named storms). In 2021 it was decided to use a supplemental list of names for storms if all 21 names for the year are used.

Dks01

broknsymetry It was our Super Secret Quantum Hurricane Shield that performed perfectly as planned.

I understand it was centred on a certain place located between Virginia and Maryland, on the Atlantic coast.

Heat84

Beachie Greek letters were used in 2005 (26 named storms) and in 2020 (30 named storms).

Yes. I thought I remembered it happening twice.

In 2021 it was decided to use a supplemental list of names for storms if all 21 names for the year are used.

Why aren’t all 26 letters of the English alphabet used? Not enough q, x,y, and z names I guess? What’s the other letter not used? V?

Beachie

As you’re already on the internet I bet you can find that information 😉

Heat84

Beachie

I thought someone might know off the top of their head.

Guy54435

Heat84 I just looked at the top of my head, nothing there but hair, sorry.

egeezer

Heat84
See
https://community.wmo.int/site/knowledge-hub/programmes-and-initiatives/tropical-cyclone-programme-tcp/tropical-cyclone-naming

HooRU

Guy54435 Nothing but air here…

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