A slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season

telcodad · 2025-06-11T16:39:59+00:00

Tropical activity has been staying well away from the Eastern U.S.,, as so far all storms have developed in the eastern Pacific. Saharan dust and wind shear have been suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic, which is still awaiting its first named tropical storm of the season. According to AccuWeather, it is likely to remain quiet through the end of June: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hazy-sky-to-persist-as-canadian-wildfire-smoke-and-saharan-dust-invade-us/1781776 Sluggish start to Atlantic hurricane season By Rachel Tucker, WFLA Forida - June 10, 2025 https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/sluggish-start-to-atlantic-hurricane-season-tracking-the-tropics/ The tropics remain quiet as we enter the second week of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. No new tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Splitpair

InternetJeff That’s interesting.

It is, but why does it look like the hurricane is turning clockwise.

Guy54435

Splitpair Perhaps the artist is from the Southern Hemisphere?

Splitpair

Guy54435 Perhaps the artist is from the Southern Hemisphere?

More than likely they just used some clip art off the web and no one who had nay brains proofed it.

digitalfutur

The Bermuda High has shift significantly west (500 miles) since August, now 65-70W, compared to 55-60W then. This means that a northward curve path like Erin took is far less likely.

The curent disturbance will be T.S. Gabrielle in a few days, and its USA landfall risk will depend on how quickly is strengthens. Strong storms interact more with the High, generating a northward pull.

broknsymetry

digitalfutur The curent disturbance will be T.S. Gabrielle

Looks like our “Hurricane Shield” is working. Disturbance 1 has shifted from a 90% probability of forming a tropical system in 7 days to around only a 20% probability.

Splitpair

digitalfutur The curent disturbance will be T.S. Gabrielle in a few days, and its USA landfall risk will depend on how quickly is strengthens. Strong storms interact more with the High, generating a northward pull.

That may not be true as dry air is bearing down on the disturbance considerably weakening it to the point it may just diminish.

InternetJeff

broknsymetry

It’s amazing what a mere 72 hours will do to these predictions.

InternetJeff

Gabrielle

Another nothingburger.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181442.shtml?wwCone#contents

broknsymetry

Our Quantum Hurricane Shield is operating as planned.

egeezer

InternetJeff

InternetJeff Another nothingburger.

I wish you Wx expert guys would post your predictions ten days ahead rather than after the fact. It would be most helpful in Emergency Management planning. 😉

InternetJeff

Not a Wx expert here, and I wouldn’t make predictions beyond 48-72 hours because they are often wrong.

But if you’re into that, here are some more of those models, going every which way.

https://www.app.com/story/news/2025/09/17/tropical-storm-gabrielle-tracks-toward-the-east-coast-where-is-it-going-path-spaghetti/86205066007/

Basically gambling. Place your bets.

broknsymetry

The Atlantic is waking up. Let’s see how good our Quantum Hurricane Shield works against these two up-and-comers.

Astyanax

broknsymetry Humberto and Invest 94L (future-named “Imelda”) could get close enough to get their winds to latch onto one another and create a Fujiwhara effect and essentially orbit each other.

Imelda is going to be a Carolinas event at worst with maybe a feeder band brushing us here in FL as it goes by.

HooRU

Is it still hot down in FLA? Here, August and September have been quite mild.

InternetJeff

Place your bets.

Usual disclaimer about these “models”: Anything beyond 72 hours is widely diverging bull crap.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#94L

egeezer

Good discussion here;
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/folie-a-deux-hurricane-watch-weekly

Heat84

HooRU Is it still hot down in FLA? Here, August and September have been quite mild.

It’s always hot here except after cold fronts come through. I don’t think it would ever go below 70 or 75F if there were no cold fronts coming through.

Heat84

Now things are getting interesting. We might even see the Fujiwhara effect🙂: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
Maybe I’ll even have a front row seat for it.🙂

I remember this happening before. In the 90’s I think. But it was in the middle of the ocean that time. And they were both hurricanes.

Heat84

egeezer

Wow. Gabrielle is gonna be heading South when it gets to Africa. Maybe it’ll turn around and come back here.🤯

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