Week in Weather 3/31/25 to 8 /30/26

Guy54435 · 2025-04-01T00:44:27+00:00

I seem to have dodged major tree damage with only a few limbs here and there, others in my area are not so lucky but nothing major that I am aware of except for power outages and the Hodag Dome collapsing in Rhinelander, Wi. Now we have this coming on Tuesday night. Tomorrow Night 04/01 87% / 3 in Watching a potential winter storm. Periods of snow. Low 28F. Winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. Blah yuck again.

telcodad

Guy54435 February’s Weather Is About To Get Much Worse.

NWS Extended Forecast for Lincroft, NJ via Weather Underground - another Sunday storm? ☹

New Jersey snow storm possible this weekend. What to know about forecasts
Asbury Park Press - February 17, 2026
https://www.app.com/story/weather/2026/02/17/nj-snowstorm-weather-in-new-jersey-forecast/88717630007/

You don’t want to go buy milk and eggs just yet, but don’t put that snow shovel away just yet.

It’s possible — possible — you could need it this weekend to shovel out.

A coastal storm could pay a visit to New Jersey on Sunday night into Monday morning, and it could cause quite a mess for New Jersey.

Are we talking inches of snow? Feet? With a storm like this, anything is possible. But the confidence is very low.

Not all forecasts agree, and most have New Jersey’s air to be too warm to cause a major snowstorm. Most of what falls could come in the form of rain. But if cold air comes with the precipitation, it could mean good news for snow lovers.

The Weather Channel is a little more nervous about the storm. It calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow on Sunday for the Jersey Shore, with a chance for another inch on Monday morning.

The National Weather Service is calling for a chance of snow and rain Sunday into Sunday night. The temperatures are in line with the other two forecasts.

Nothing is set in stone, and it’s far too early to plan your life around the storm. But it’s something to keep an eye on as we head to the weekend.

Somewhat-Reticent

Snow and rain makes treacherous icy slush.
At least milk is still available.

telcodad

From: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/weekend-snowstorm-risk-in-northeast-hinges-on-storm-track-cold-air/1864656

Guy54435

This Storm Is Bringing Something For Everyone.

Dropping a little bit of the white stuff here in Wisconsin, just enough to make the roads iffy.

telcodad

Currently looking like 4 to 6 inches of snow here, but storm track is still uncertain at this time.

An East Coast Storm, Nor’easter With Snow, Rain, Wind Is Possible Sunday And Monday. Here’s What We Know.
We’ve seen this before this winter. Low pressure will form off the East Coast. The question is where it goes. Here’s our latest forecast thinking.
By Jonathan Erdman, Weather.com - updated February 19, 2026
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2026-02-18-east-coast-storm-noreaster-forecast

An East Coast storm could develop as soon as Sunday, but the track of this potential nor’easter isn’t yet determined, leaving impacts such as snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding uncertain from New England to the mid-Atlantic states.

As is often the case, parts of this forecast are somewhat clearer, while others are quite uncertain several days out.

What We Know

Timing: Sunday (especially late) into Monday

We expect low pressure to form Sunday off the East Coast, somewhere offshore between the Delmarva Peninsula and the Carolinas.

That low pressure should gain strength, and could do so quickly enough to be called a “bomb cyclone” by early Monday, a term for low pressure that intensifies rapidly.

What’s Still Uncertain

The main uncertainty is where this offshore low tracks. That affects who may see snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding and the magnitude of those impacts.

To keep it simple, there are two extreme ends of this forecast:

The low intensifies too late and/or is too far offshore that impacts along the coast are minimal after some light rain, snow and gusty coastal winds Sunday.

The low intensifies and tracks closer to the coast, bringing a threat of coastal flooding, along with heavier rain or snow and high winds to the coast, and to some extent inland.

telcodad

El Nino is brewing: Here’s what it means for US weather in 2026
El Niño may take shape later this year, and the ripple effects could show up in U.S. weather during the second half of 2026. Here’s what that shift can mean for rain, storms, and hurricanes.
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist - Updated Feb 19, 2026 9:57 AM EST
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/el-nino-is-brewing-heres-what-it-means-for-us-weather-in-2026/1865308

A major shift may be brewing in the Pacific Ocean: Forecasters say El Niño could develop later this year. If it does, it can reshape weather patterns across the United States during the second half of 2026, as well as the Atlantic hurricane season.

What is El Niño, and why does it matter?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that shows up every few years. It happens when ocean water warms in the tropical Pacific near the equator. The opposite phase is La Niña, when that same region runs cooler than average.

When such a large stretch of the Pacific warms (or cools) for months at a time, it can nudge the jet stream into a different position. That shift can change where storms track and where wet or dry patterns set up around the world. It’s one of the factors AccuWeather considers when building long-range weather forecasts.

The most recent El Niños happened during the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24.
:
What El Niño means for the weather and the hurricane season
If El Niño develops during summer, one of the biggest areas to watch is the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in September.

“El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin,” AccuWeather Long-range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year.”

In general, higher wind shear can make it harder for storms to organize and strengthen, which can reduce the overall number of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to a La Niña season. El Niño’s influence can also shift where storms are more likely to form, with activity sometimes favored farther out over the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline. Meanwhile, El Niño can have the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity often increases.

El Niño can also affect rainfall patterns in the U.S. For parts of the West that have been very dry, that could be welcome news.

“El Niño patterns could bring more rain than normal to the Colorado Basin,” Merrill said. The uptick in rain would not be enough to quench the ongoing drought, but it would be a step in the right direction.

“The early start to the El Niño can lead to an increase in moisture from the southern Plains to East Coast during summer and fall,” Nicholls added.

Looking farther ahead, El Niño could also become an important piece of the puzzle in the 2026-27 winter forecast.

Guy54435

🔴 LIVE - ENHANCED TORNADO RISK IN THE OHIO VALLEY - STORM CHASERS ON THE GROUND

telcodad

Estimated snow amounts looking lower now:

Though the GFS model is showing like 7 inches right now. 🙁

telcodad

AccuWeather estimating only 1 to 3 inches also:

Guy54435

~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~
~~Life threatening tornado event ongoing please check your local NWS weather announcements, follow along with Ryans Coverage.~~

~~As Of 7:20 pm CT Tornado Warnings Are Still On Going~~

Tornado Warnings have Expired, there is still a chance of more severe storms as time goes on.

Guy54435

EXPIRED
~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~

196
WFUS51 KILN 200249
TORILN
OHC057-113-165-200315-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0001.260220T0249Z-260220T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
949 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

Tornado Warning for…
Northern Warren County in southwestern Ohio…
Southwestern Greene County in west central Ohio…
Southeastern Montgomery County in west central Ohio…
Until 1015 PM EST.
At 946 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Springboro, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
Locations impacted include…
Kettering, Beavercreek, Xenia, Miamisburg, Springboro, Franklin,
Bellbrook, West Carrollton, Waynesville, Hunter, Harveysburg,
Spring Valley, Corwin, Centerville, Lytle, Mount Holly, Roxanna,
Pekin and Five Points.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 37 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

LAT…LON 3946 8429 3966 8430 3972 8397 3949 8399
TIME…MOT…LOC 0246Z 262DEG 30KT 3957 8424

TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE…0.00 IN

Guy54435

EXPIRED
~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~
584
WFUS51 KILN 200253
TORILN
OHC057-200330-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0002.260220T0253Z-260220T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
953 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

Tornado Warning for…
Southeastern Greene County in west central Ohio…
Until 1030 PM EST.
At 953 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles south of Xenia, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
Locations impacted include…
Jamestown, New Jasper, Bowersville, Paintersville, Middleton
Corner, and Rosemoor.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 58 and 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

LAT…LON 3955 8367 3957 8392 3965 8396 3968 8366
TIME…MOT…LOC 0253Z 258DEG 27KT 3958 8389

TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE…<.75 IN

Guy54435

EXPIRED
~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~
862
WWUS51 KILN 200302
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

OHC057-200330-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260220T0330Z/
Greene OH-
1002 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY…

At 1001 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Jamestown, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include…
Jamestown, New Jasper, Bowersville, Paintersville, and Rosemoor.

This includes I-71 in Ohio near mile marker 61.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

LAT…LON 3958 8367 3957 8385 3966 8387 3968 8366
TIME…MOT…LOC 0301Z 258DEG 27KT 3959 8381

TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE…<.75 IN

Guy54435

Continue to follow Ryan for new updates, and when he ends his stream check out Y’all Bot for over night coverage of weather.

Stay safe out there everyone.

Guy54435

EXPIRED

~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~
965
WFUS51 KRLX 200546
TORRLX
WVC035-087-105-200600-
/O.NEW.KRLX.TO.W.0001.260220T0546Z-260220T0600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1246 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

The National Weather Service in Charleston West Virginia has issued a

Tornado Warning for…
Southwestern Wirt County in northwestern West Virginia…
Northwestern Roane County in central West Virginia…
Central Jackson County in northwestern West Virginia…
Until 100 AM EST.
At 1245 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Ripley, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
This dangerous storm will be near…
Ripley and Sandyville around 1250 AM EST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Cottageville, Leroy, Peewee, Reedy, and Evans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT…LON 3879 8178 3886 8184 3901 8152 3887 8134
TIME…MOT…LOC 0545Z 255DEG 47KT 3887 8175

TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE…1.00 IN

Guy54435

EXPIRED
~~NWS TORNADO WARNING~~
384
WFUS51 KRLX 200600
TORRLX
WVC013-035-087-105-200615-
/O.NEW.KRLX.TO.W.0002.260220T0600Z-260220T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

The National Weather Service in Charleston West Virginia has issued a

Tornado Warning for…
Northwestern Calhoun County in north central West Virginia…
Southern Wirt County in northwestern West Virginia…
Northwestern Roane County in central West Virginia…
East central Jackson County in northwestern West Virginia…
Until 115 AM EST.
At 100 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles east of Sandyville, or 11 miles northwest of
Spencer, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Calhoun, southern Wirt, northwestern Roane and east
central Jackson Counties, including the following locations…
Lucille, Peewee, Reedy, Creston, Annamoriah, Leroy, and Munday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

LAT…LON 3884 8156 3893 8165 3902 8121 3887 8114
TIME…MOT…LOC 0600Z 256DEG 46KT 3892 8152

TORNADO…RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE…1.00 IN

telcodad

telcodad the GFS model is showing like 7 inches right now. 🙁

The GFS model is estimating even more now! Here’s what the various models are estimating for the NYC area right now:

[Personally, I’m rooting for the Euro one. 😉 ]

« Previous Page Next Page »