For anybody unfamiliar with the acronym, "BDU" is "Broadcast Distribution Undertaking", a generic term which covers legacy Pay-TV (cable/IPTV/Satellite) distribution in Canada. The quarterly subscriber numbers have been updated through Q3 2024 at https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/crtc/viz/CurrentTrends/BDURevenuesandSubscribers
The "headline numbers" are "eek, screech; total BDU subscriber count is falling". A more nuanced analysis shows that combined cable+IPTV numbers are holding steady. Satellite subscribership is inexorably declining, which brings down the total. The first graph below shows total (blue) and satellite (green) subscribership falling, while cable+IPTV (pink) remains steady.
The second graph zooms in on the satellite subscriber numbers, and does a linear regression which hits zero early 2031. No, I did not tweak the numbers to generate a linear trend line. I would've expected the decline to get steeper after the approval of Starlink in Canada in November 2020 https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/spacex-starlink-receives-final-license-paving-way-for-satellite-internet-in-canada/ but the decline stayed linear.
As near as I can tell, Bell has approximately 60% of Canada's satellite TV market, with 40% going to Rogers-owned "ShawDirect". Expect "decision day" well before 2027. Another (annual) dataset, shows "Peak Satellite" in Canada in 2011. Given slow-moving bureaucracy, the decision to build+launch Nimiq-6 was probably made in 2010 or 2011 when the future looked rosy for satellite TV in Canada. Bell Satellite TV uses all 32 transponders on Nimiq-6, which was launched May 18, 2012 https://www.telesat.com/press/press-releases/telesat-successfully-launches-nimiq-6-satellite/ Nimiq-6 has a 15-year life expectancy (mid-2027). The decision to build+launch a hypothetical "Nimiq-7" would have to be made by the end of this year.
If I was Mirko Bibic, I would NOT approve "Nimiq-7". In 2011 the total Canadian satellite market was 2.877 million subscribers. As of Q3 2024, it was 1 million, a loss of 65%. The trendline shows approximately 600,000 customers by mid-2027, when "Nimiq-7" would take over. And zero by the end of 2030. Even a merger of Bell+Rogers satellite services is pointless.
If someone can receive geostationary satellite TV, they can receive Starlink or Xplore, etc. The best alternative for those people who REALLY want it is encrypted service over Starlink or Xplore satellite internet.
